【2015 stock market crash—That year, I first understood what a “policy floor” is】
That year, too—the index was falling so hard it was like wailing, with all kinds of rescue-from-the-market news flying everywhere. In the chat group, a bunch of people were shouting, “The policy floor is here—buy now and rush in!” But what happened? After the policy floor, there was still a market floor. A lot of people bought halfway up the mountain, only to get cut again—some got stopped out, others were already selling off.
Now, doesn’t this current rally look similar? Economic data doesn’t look great, and market sentiment is low. But signals from above meant to support the economy keep coming out one after another: RRR cuts, loosened real estate policies, consumption vouchers, subsidies for new energy… the news flow is so warm. But how’s the index doing? It just drags along, neither up nor down decisively.
I’ve noticed an interesting phenomenon: this rally isn’t driven by the “future,” it’s driven by the “oversold” bounce. Look at the sectors that are rallying the hardest—how many of them truly have performance support? Most are just being lifted by funds that got stuck there for too long, doing self-rescue. If you rush in chasing this kind of stock, whether you can get back to breakeven is anyone’s guess—but you’d better think clearly: who’s selling into the move, and who’s taking the other side.
Trading volume is the key signal. Recently, daily volume is in the trillions, but the index’s gains can’t keep up. What does that indicate? It suggests there are people running for the exits while others are coming in—turnover between participants. A real major uptrend usually doesn’t drag like this. It either breaks out with volume expansion, or grinds down with shrinking-volume candles. This kind of path right now is pure positioning and contention.
Back to the question at the start: what does this drop onto the ground mean?
It means some people are using the warm policy winds to run away, while others are betting on more policy support and using the bottom to buy. Who’s right? I don’t know. But one thing is very clear: a policy floor ≠ a market bottom, a sentiment floor ≠ a trend bottom. If you’re thinking of going all in right now to gamble, I’d say: think it through. I made money in the bull market of 2021—those profits came from the trend itself, not from your ability to judge.
As for me now, I’m itching to act, but I’ll say the same thing: keep some ammunition in your hand—nothing is more important than that. You ask what my mindset is right now? Watching, eating popcorn, and waiting for signals. Opportunities can’t be rushed.
So—are you fully invested, fully in cash, or just like me, holding ammunition and waiting for a chance? Will you dare to follow this move?
That year, too—the index was falling so hard it was like wailing, with all kinds of rescue-from-the-market news flying everywhere. In the chat group, a bunch of people were shouting, “The policy floor is here—buy now and rush in!” But what happened? After the policy floor, there was still a market floor. A lot of people bought halfway up the mountain, only to get cut again—some got stopped out, others were already selling off.
Now, doesn’t this current rally look similar? Economic data doesn’t look great, and market sentiment is low. But signals from above meant to support the economy keep coming out one after another: RRR cuts, loosened real estate policies, consumption vouchers, subsidies for new energy… the news flow is so warm. But how’s the index doing? It just drags along, neither up nor down decisively.
I’ve noticed an interesting phenomenon: this rally isn’t driven by the “future,” it’s driven by the “oversold” bounce. Look at the sectors that are rallying the hardest—how many of them truly have performance support? Most are just being lifted by funds that got stuck there for too long, doing self-rescue. If you rush in chasing this kind of stock, whether you can get back to breakeven is anyone’s guess—but you’d better think clearly: who’s selling into the move, and who’s taking the other side.
Trading volume is the key signal. Recently, daily volume is in the trillions, but the index’s gains can’t keep up. What does that indicate? It suggests there are people running for the exits while others are coming in—turnover between participants. A real major uptrend usually doesn’t drag like this. It either breaks out with volume expansion, or grinds down with shrinking-volume candles. This kind of path right now is pure positioning and contention.
Back to the question at the start: what does this drop onto the ground mean?
It means some people are using the warm policy winds to run away, while others are betting on more policy support and using the bottom to buy. Who’s right? I don’t know. But one thing is very clear: a policy floor ≠ a market bottom, a sentiment floor ≠ a trend bottom. If you’re thinking of going all in right now to gamble, I’d say: think it through. I made money in the bull market of 2021—those profits came from the trend itself, not from your ability to judge.
As for me now, I’m itching to act, but I’ll say the same thing: keep some ammunition in your hand—nothing is more important than that. You ask what my mindset is right now? Watching, eating popcorn, and waiting for signals. Opportunities can’t be rushed.
So—are you fully invested, fully in cash, or just like me, holding ammunition and waiting for a chance? Will you dare to follow this move?