BEAT Now around 1.09u: within a day it was cut straight from 3.6 down to 1.0, down six-tenths. The price then just clings to the 24-hour low.
First, let’s talk about how brutal this drop is. On the 4-hour chart there are six straight bearish candles—no bullish one at all. The net decline is nearly 60%. Open interest in the contracts shrank by more than 30% in a single day, which is typical of leverage being collectively washed out. At times like this, the short-term selling pressure is basically released.
But the issue is what comes next. When price falls to this level, open interest in the contracts actually increases again. In seven hours, it added back 35%, which means new money is entering—but the direction isn’t decided yet. Both longs and shorts are adding positions. Whale accounts are still over 60% positioned for longs, but their exposure is being reduced; big players are withdrawing while the price bounces.
Even more troublesome: the spot market shows no big-order support at all—there’s not even a hint of a takeover/absorption signal. The news backdrop is also completely blank, and the market doesn’t even bother to offer an explanation. Pushing upward from here will require fresh capital to step in; moving downward, on the other hand, means floating supply can leak at any time.
So my view is: don’t chase, and don’t rush to catch. Yes, at this extent of the fall there’s definitely an oversold flavor. But the trend has not produced even a single bullish candle, and price is still sitting right on the lows—catching the falling knife isn’t great in terms of risk-reward right now. Let it stabilize first; even if it only prints a decent, high-volume bullish candle as confirmation, then we can talk about opportunity.
#beat $BEAT
First, let’s talk about how brutal this drop is. On the 4-hour chart there are six straight bearish candles—no bullish one at all. The net decline is nearly 60%. Open interest in the contracts shrank by more than 30% in a single day, which is typical of leverage being collectively washed out. At times like this, the short-term selling pressure is basically released.
But the issue is what comes next. When price falls to this level, open interest in the contracts actually increases again. In seven hours, it added back 35%, which means new money is entering—but the direction isn’t decided yet. Both longs and shorts are adding positions. Whale accounts are still over 60% positioned for longs, but their exposure is being reduced; big players are withdrawing while the price bounces.
Even more troublesome: the spot market shows no big-order support at all—there’s not even a hint of a takeover/absorption signal. The news backdrop is also completely blank, and the market doesn’t even bother to offer an explanation. Pushing upward from here will require fresh capital to step in; moving downward, on the other hand, means floating supply can leak at any time.
So my view is: don’t chase, and don’t rush to catch. Yes, at this extent of the fall there’s definitely an oversold flavor. But the trend has not produced even a single bullish candle, and price is still sitting right on the lows—catching the falling knife isn’t great in terms of risk-reward right now. Let it stabilize first; even if it only prints a decent, high-volume bullish candle as confirmation, then we can talk about opportunity.
#beat $BEAT