SOXS is now around 44.7u. It surged up from the low-40s in one go; in 24 hours it rose by more than 10%, and the price is now directly up near the 24-hour high point.
On the surface, this move looks pretty smooth: both the 4-hour chart and the daily chart are trending up, and the price is holding along the 20/50 dual moving averages. Open interest increased by nearly a quarter in one day—so it would seem to signal new capital entering.
But the issue is in the capital structure. The funding rate is basically hovering near zero, and the proportion of active buy orders is only just over 50%. The long/short ratio is 1.09—not exactly crushing.
What really caught my attention is the big players: the number of accounts is on the higher side, but their holdings ratio has fallen to 0.76, leaning short. And during these past 7 hours, long positions held by large accounts were cut by more than 10%. In other words, the price is rising, but the large “real money” longs are trimming.
This kind of trend is exactly what I fear: "as it keeps going up, there’s suddenly nobody to take over." The risk/reward for chasing here isn’t great, and the price is already right up against the highs. Once the buy pressure can’t keep up, volatility will expand.
So I won’t chase here. I’ll wait for a pullback and see whether there are buyers stepping in below. In the high-level, sideways phase with heavy volume, first watch how the capital chooses.
#soxs $SOXS
On the surface, this move looks pretty smooth: both the 4-hour chart and the daily chart are trending up, and the price is holding along the 20/50 dual moving averages. Open interest increased by nearly a quarter in one day—so it would seem to signal new capital entering.
But the issue is in the capital structure. The funding rate is basically hovering near zero, and the proportion of active buy orders is only just over 50%. The long/short ratio is 1.09—not exactly crushing.
What really caught my attention is the big players: the number of accounts is on the higher side, but their holdings ratio has fallen to 0.76, leaning short. And during these past 7 hours, long positions held by large accounts were cut by more than 10%. In other words, the price is rising, but the large “real money” longs are trimming.
This kind of trend is exactly what I fear: "as it keeps going up, there’s suddenly nobody to take over." The risk/reward for chasing here isn’t great, and the price is already right up against the highs. Once the buy pressure can’t keep up, volatility will expand.
So I won’t chase here. I’ll wait for a pullback and see whether there are buyers stepping in below. In the high-level, sideways phase with heavy volume, first watch how the capital chooses.
#soxs $SOXS