This chart shows the Shiller cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio (CAPE) for the U.S. stock market. From 1881 to today, only the valuation at the peak of the 2000 internet bubble was higher than it is now.
CAPE uses inflation-adjusted earnings from the past decade as the denominator, which reflects the long-term valuation level better than a conventional PE. The current reading is again nearing the historical extreme range, indicating that U.S. stocks are not cheap overall.
For the crypto market, this has two implications. First, when traditional equity assets are valued highly and expected returns decline, some capital tends to rotate into alternative assets to seek non-correlated returns; the value of digital assets like BTC in a portfolio will be reassessed. Second, an overvaluation by itself is not a crash signal, but it does mean the risk–reward profile worsens. If macro liquidity or earnings growth rates change, volatility can be amplified.
My own approach is not to treat valuation as a timing tool, but as a reference for position management. I keep a core position on the equity side, and diversify with crypto assets. I won’t sell all U.S. stocks just because of this chart, and I won’t chase any single asset higher out of FOMO.
The market always has bulls and bears, but your own risk boundaries should be clear.
$COTI #资产配置 #美股 #cryptocurrency
CAPE uses inflation-adjusted earnings from the past decade as the denominator, which reflects the long-term valuation level better than a conventional PE. The current reading is again nearing the historical extreme range, indicating that U.S. stocks are not cheap overall.
For the crypto market, this has two implications. First, when traditional equity assets are valued highly and expected returns decline, some capital tends to rotate into alternative assets to seek non-correlated returns; the value of digital assets like BTC in a portfolio will be reassessed. Second, an overvaluation by itself is not a crash signal, but it does mean the risk–reward profile worsens. If macro liquidity or earnings growth rates change, volatility can be amplified.
My own approach is not to treat valuation as a timing tool, but as a reference for position management. I keep a core position on the equity side, and diversify with crypto assets. I won’t sell all U.S. stocks just because of this chart, and I won’t chase any single asset higher out of FOMO.
The market always has bulls and bears, but your own risk boundaries should be clear.
$COTI #资产配置 #美股 #cryptocurrency