There’s been continuous inflow of funds, yet BTC is still moving sideways—I’m starting to focus more on “absorption,” not “breakout.”
Over the past few days, I’ve been tracking the relationship between ETFs, stablecoins, and BTC price.
As of around August 10, the U.S. spot BTC ETFs have seen consecutive days of net inflows, totaling roughly $850 million. But BTC is still largely oscillating around $64,000.
When I used to see this kind of situation, I might ask:
“Why is so much money coming in, but BTC isn’t going up?”
Now I’d rather ask a different question:
“If these new buy orders weren’t here, where would BTC be right now?”
These two ways of thinking are completely different.
Price stagnation doesn’t necessarily mean that the capital inflow has no effect.
If, at the same time, the market has long-held positions being cashed out, short-term sell pressure, and insufficient risk appetite, then the new ETF inflows may first be used to:
absorb the sell pressure, not to push the price higher.
At this point, the key variables worth tracking become:
Continuous buying → absorbs sell pressure → fewer available sellable coins → supply-demand imbalance → price repricing
So going forward, I won’t conclude that ETF inflows are “ineffective” just because BTC hasn’t broken out.
Instead, I’ll watch:
How long can the sell pressure keep going?
Because when new demand remains present while the amount of releasable supply gradually decreases, the price’s sensitivity to incremental inflows may change.
Sideways trading comes in two forms: sideways without demand, and sideways where buying is absorbing sell pressure.
What’s truly worth studying is which one we’re in right now.
#Bitcoin #Crypto #ETF #流动性 #投资思考
Over the past few days, I’ve been tracking the relationship between ETFs, stablecoins, and BTC price.
As of around August 10, the U.S. spot BTC ETFs have seen consecutive days of net inflows, totaling roughly $850 million. But BTC is still largely oscillating around $64,000.
When I used to see this kind of situation, I might ask:
“Why is so much money coming in, but BTC isn’t going up?”
Now I’d rather ask a different question:
“If these new buy orders weren’t here, where would BTC be right now?”
These two ways of thinking are completely different.
Price stagnation doesn’t necessarily mean that the capital inflow has no effect.
If, at the same time, the market has long-held positions being cashed out, short-term sell pressure, and insufficient risk appetite, then the new ETF inflows may first be used to:
absorb the sell pressure, not to push the price higher.
At this point, the key variables worth tracking become:
Continuous buying → absorbs sell pressure → fewer available sellable coins → supply-demand imbalance → price repricing
So going forward, I won’t conclude that ETF inflows are “ineffective” just because BTC hasn’t broken out.
Instead, I’ll watch:
How long can the sell pressure keep going?
Because when new demand remains present while the amount of releasable supply gradually decreases, the price’s sensitivity to incremental inflows may change.
Sideways trading comes in two forms: sideways without demand, and sideways where buying is absorbing sell pressure.
What’s truly worth studying is which one we’re in right now.
#Bitcoin #Crypto #ETF #流动性 #投资思考