The most noteworthy change this morning is that the queue list for so-called “shanzhai” (copycat) ETFs suddenly got thinner: Grayscale has withdrawn the registration applications for three single-coin ETFs—$ADA , $DOT , and $HBAR —so the market needs to cool down the “long-tail ETF beta” narrative again.
The verified facts are: according to SEC filings, the dates on three Forms RW are all August 7; Grayscale withdrew the Cardano Trust ETF, Polkadot Trust ETF, and Hedera Trust ETF, respectively. The stated reasons for all three documents are that it is no longer planning to issue the relevant trust units, and that the registration has not taken effect—there is no issuance, offer, or sale of securities. CoinDesk, reported 10 hours earlier, also confirmed that this is a voluntary withdrawal by the issuer, not an SEC rejection.
The impact on the chain is that the ETF narrative shifts from “if you’re in the queue, there will be a premium” to “issuers will also screen projects and demand.” CoinDesk’s statistics show that in the year to date, ADA is down over 41%, DOT down 54%, and HBAR down 35%, indicating that even assets that have been wrapped in compliance may not attract enough capital and market-making depth.
The bullish scenario is if Grayscale or other issuers resubmit later, the SEC’s stance on shanzhai ETFs becomes clearer, and trading volume first recovers. The neutral scenario is that the withdrawal only affects these three products. The bearish scenario is more non-top-tier single-coin ETFs withdrawing. The next thing to verify is whether expectations for shanzhai ETFs will concentrate in a handful of highly liquid assets, or whether premiums across the board will be compressed.
#ETF #Regulatory
For information only and does not constitute investment advice.
The verified facts are: according to SEC filings, the dates on three Forms RW are all August 7; Grayscale withdrew the Cardano Trust ETF, Polkadot Trust ETF, and Hedera Trust ETF, respectively. The stated reasons for all three documents are that it is no longer planning to issue the relevant trust units, and that the registration has not taken effect—there is no issuance, offer, or sale of securities. CoinDesk, reported 10 hours earlier, also confirmed that this is a voluntary withdrawal by the issuer, not an SEC rejection.
The impact on the chain is that the ETF narrative shifts from “if you’re in the queue, there will be a premium” to “issuers will also screen projects and demand.” CoinDesk’s statistics show that in the year to date, ADA is down over 41%, DOT down 54%, and HBAR down 35%, indicating that even assets that have been wrapped in compliance may not attract enough capital and market-making depth.
The bullish scenario is if Grayscale or other issuers resubmit later, the SEC’s stance on shanzhai ETFs becomes clearer, and trading volume first recovers. The neutral scenario is that the withdrawal only affects these three products. The bearish scenario is more non-top-tier single-coin ETFs withdrawing. The next thing to verify is whether expectations for shanzhai ETFs will concentrate in a handful of highly liquid assets, or whether premiums across the board will be compressed.
#ETF #Regulatory
For information only and does not constitute investment advice.