TUT is currently around 0.111u. This move took it all the way from 0.02 up to 0.33—more than ten times in a week—then dropped back to about forty percent in just two days. I won’t go in and catch it at this level.
The key is the positioning/position size. Half of the holdings were cut in a single day; the data directly flagged “bear_capitulation.” The leveraged funds that chased higher were basically squeezed out. The fuel for this rally has burned out.
The order book can’t hide it either. The 20-level sell orders on spot are pressing down the buy orders to near 0.17x. The active buy-side has been pinned to just a bit above 20%. The sell pressure is real—this isn’t just bluffing.
Of course, there are also contradictions. Spot shows a net inflow of 12 in the last three hours, all positive, and sentiment is still somewhat bullish. But here’s the problem: the price has kept falling, and the returning capital hasn’t pushed the price up. That suggests it’s taking the sell pressure that’s coming from the downside—not genuine support/absorption. The bullish sentiment is more driven by order-sending and hype, so confidence isn’t high.
Bottom line: this is the ebbing tide of an emotion-driven surge. The price has already broken below the moving averages, and the trend has turned bearish. Chasing longs now isn’t a good value proposition. If you really want to participate, wait for the sell pressure to clear and for it to hold steady at a low level first—don’t catch the knife halfway up a hill.
#tut $TUT
The key is the positioning/position size. Half of the holdings were cut in a single day; the data directly flagged “bear_capitulation.” The leveraged funds that chased higher were basically squeezed out. The fuel for this rally has burned out.
The order book can’t hide it either. The 20-level sell orders on spot are pressing down the buy orders to near 0.17x. The active buy-side has been pinned to just a bit above 20%. The sell pressure is real—this isn’t just bluffing.
Of course, there are also contradictions. Spot shows a net inflow of 12 in the last three hours, all positive, and sentiment is still somewhat bullish. But here’s the problem: the price has kept falling, and the returning capital hasn’t pushed the price up. That suggests it’s taking the sell pressure that’s coming from the downside—not genuine support/absorption. The bullish sentiment is more driven by order-sending and hype, so confidence isn’t high.
Bottom line: this is the ebbing tide of an emotion-driven surge. The price has already broken below the moving averages, and the trend has turned bearish. Chasing longs now isn’t a good value proposition. If you really want to participate, wait for the sell pressure to clear and for it to hold steady at a low level first—don’t catch the knife halfway up a hill.
#tut $TUT