8.11 Tuesday Review｜4375 was just stabbed once, no damage to the face; 4365 shorts kept holding on
That move yesterday was indeed pretty scary—it pushed all the way to 4398, and it nearly swept out the stop-loss on our 4376 shorts. But when the close came in, it still retreated and stayed steady at 4389. This price action is too typical—it's the main force deliberately pushing the price up to “wash out” those short sellers who set stops around 4375. After washing them out, it drops. Yesterday we anticipated a step too early and got taught by the market, but the big picture hasn’t changed: it’s up 7% this week—too fast, it definitely has to give back. Today, I’m still watching how it pulls back.
Fundamentals aren’t anything new. The NFP move priced in the September rate cut expectation in full; now it’s at nearly 50%. The dollar also can’t seem to move—it's just lying around near 99.7, pretending to be dead. Everyone is waiting for Wednesday’s CPI—nobody dares to charge hard at 4400 with real money before the data.
Even though oil is rising and geopolitics hasn’t calmed down, which provides some bottom support for gold price, bulls are also a bit jittery right now; they’re all waiting for the data to give a clear signal.
Technically, that needle yesterday pierced to 4398. It looks fierce, but it’s exactly pinned at the upper Bollinger band and the 4400 round-number level—then immediately pulled back. That’s a classic “false breakout.” The 4-hour chart is even more obvious: price made a new high, but MACD momentum didn’t keep up. That’s called bearish divergence, showing the bulls have already run out of steam. The downward trendline at 4375 that it broke yesterday needs to be retested and confirmed today; if it fails to hold on the retest, then it may head toward 4345 and even 4300.
In terms of trading, we won’t play dead and we won’t panic either. I still hold the 4365 short; the stop-loss is moved up to 4403—just give the market an extra 3 points of “face.” If it really runs up there, it means the main force is truly crazy, and we’ll admit the loss and exit. Don’t chase shorts today—wait for a rebound:
If it can’t push above 4390–4400, or if it breaks below 4375, then this short stays alive; first look at 4360–4345.
If before the US session it steadily breaks below 4300, then move the stop to 4380 to lock in profit—keep the core position to bet on 4220–4200.
If it just chops around 4330–4360, don’t touch it. Watch sideways and wait for Wednesday’s CPI.
We got the timing wrong yesterday, but the direction is still right. Today isn’t surrender—it’s just changing the approach: wait for the pullback.
The above is only my personal view and does not constitute any investment advice
$XAU #黄金挑战4380美元
That move yesterday was indeed pretty scary—it pushed all the way to 4398, and it nearly swept out the stop-loss on our 4376 shorts. But when the close came in, it still retreated and stayed steady at 4389. This price action is too typical—it's the main force deliberately pushing the price up to “wash out” those short sellers who set stops around 4375. After washing them out, it drops. Yesterday we anticipated a step too early and got taught by the market, but the big picture hasn’t changed: it’s up 7% this week—too fast, it definitely has to give back. Today, I’m still watching how it pulls back.
Fundamentals aren’t anything new. The NFP move priced in the September rate cut expectation in full; now it’s at nearly 50%. The dollar also can’t seem to move—it's just lying around near 99.7, pretending to be dead. Everyone is waiting for Wednesday’s CPI—nobody dares to charge hard at 4400 with real money before the data.
Even though oil is rising and geopolitics hasn’t calmed down, which provides some bottom support for gold price, bulls are also a bit jittery right now; they’re all waiting for the data to give a clear signal.
Technically, that needle yesterday pierced to 4398. It looks fierce, but it’s exactly pinned at the upper Bollinger band and the 4400 round-number level—then immediately pulled back. That’s a classic “false breakout.” The 4-hour chart is even more obvious: price made a new high, but MACD momentum didn’t keep up. That’s called bearish divergence, showing the bulls have already run out of steam. The downward trendline at 4375 that it broke yesterday needs to be retested and confirmed today; if it fails to hold on the retest, then it may head toward 4345 and even 4300.
In terms of trading, we won’t play dead and we won’t panic either. I still hold the 4365 short; the stop-loss is moved up to 4403—just give the market an extra 3 points of “face.” If it really runs up there, it means the main force is truly crazy, and we’ll admit the loss and exit. Don’t chase shorts today—wait for a rebound:
If it can’t push above 4390–4400, or if it breaks below 4375, then this short stays alive; first look at 4360–4345.
If before the US session it steadily breaks below 4300, then move the stop to 4380 to lock in profit—keep the core position to bet on 4220–4200.
If it just chops around 4330–4360, don’t touch it. Watch sideways and wait for Wednesday’s CPI.
We got the timing wrong yesterday, but the direction is still right. Today isn’t surrender—it’s just changing the approach: wait for the pullback.
The above is only my personal view and does not constitute any investment advice
$XAU #黄金挑战4380美元