LONDON, August 4, 2026. Linea Prime has published a market outlook placing the current Bitcoin decline inside a repeating cycle its analysts have tracked across previous drawdowns, and setting a projection of $250,000 per coin by the end of 2026. The framework and the target were released together in the firm's latest Linea Prime research, distributed to clients this week.

Where the Current Decline Sits on the Clock

The outlook divides each Bitcoin cycle into two unequal halves. In the firm's reading of prior cycles, the falling phase has run for roughly 360 days from a cycle high before exhausting itself, while the advance that follows has extended for something closer to 1,060 days. Analysts at Linea Prime say they measure those phases in elapsed days rather than in percentage terms, on the view that elapsed time has proved more consistent across cycles than the depth of any single drawdown.

By that count, the decline now under way is treated as a phase with a defined end rather than an indefinite one. The note stops short of naming a date for the low. It describes instead a window inside which the falling phase would historically have finished running its course, and it asks readers to locate the present market on that timeline before reacting to any individual week of price action.

The framing also changes how weakness gets logged internally. Rather than treating each leg down as fresh information, the desk records it against the elapsed day count, which is the measure the whole outlook rests on.

Four Cycles, One Repeating Shape

The pattern is not new to the market, and Linea Prime does not present it as proprietary. The firm's argument is narrower: that the shape has held with enough regularity across successive cycles to be worth measuring rather than waved away as coincidence. Each cycle has opened with a supply change written into the protocol, drawn capital in through the advancing years, then unwound through a shorter and steeper contraction as borrowed positions were cleared out.

The Linea Prime research walks through where the mechanics differ this time. Ownership is spread across a wider set of institutional holders than in earlier cycles, custody sits with regulated entities in far greater proportion, and a larger share of trading volume clears through venues that publish their order books. Those changes, the note argues, are more likely to alter the amplitude of a cycle than its timing.

The document is equally direct about where the analogy thins out. With only a handful of completed cycles on record, the sample is small, and the firm states plainly that a shape observed four times is a pattern rather than a law.

The Linea Prime Research Behind the $250,000 Projection

The $250,000 figure is presented as the midpoint of a range the desk considers reachable if the advance begins inside the window the cycle count implies and then runs at a pace consistent with earlier recoveries. Three inputs carry the estimate: the timing of the turn, the rate at which coins held for years return to exchanges, and the volume of allocation arriving through regulated products.

A spokesperson for Linea Prime said the figure matters less than the structure sitting behind it.

"People fixate on the headline number, and that is the least interesting part of the work," the spokesperson said. "What we published is a cycle count and a set of conditions attached to it. If the turn arrives late, or if holders who have sat still for years start selling into the first strong rally, the target moves and we will say so in the next revision. We would rather a client understood which assumptions the number leans on than memorized the number itself."

The desk intends to revise the projection each quarter as the day count advances.

What the Projection Deliberately Leaves Out

The note carries no recommendation to buy, sell, or hold, and Linea Prime says none was intended. It offers no guidance on borrowing, no position sizing, and no entry timing for individual clients, which the company describes as a deliberate boundary between research and advice.

It also declines to model several risks it names openly. A change in how digital assets are treated for tax or reporting purposes in a major market, a failure at a large custodian, or a prolonged tightening of funding conditions would each sit outside the cycle framework entirely. The Linea Prime note classes those as events that break the pattern rather than variables operating inside it.

Clients holding through the falling phase are pointed toward the risk controls already available on the platform and the educational material covering volatility, not toward any new product. The outlook closes by restating that a cycle count is a lens for reading the market and not a forecast to be traded mechanically.

About Linea Prime

Linea Prime is an online trading platform providing access to forex, cryptocurrencies, indices, commodities, and equity CFDs through a single account. The company offers charting and analysis tools, market research, structured educational material, and a range of account options suited to clients at different levels of experience.

Media Contact

Name: Press Office, Linea Prime

Email: PR@LineaPrime.com

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