Last Friday, I opened a crypto short position on leverage. But I was really anxious inside. After reflecting over the weekend, I realized it’s because I’ve been doing too many short-term trades in the US stock market recently. So going forward, I will stick to my own trading system: focus on trend trading and do fewer short-term trades. If you’re trying to make quick money by going against your trading system, then you’re not far from getting liquidated.
What matters isn’t how much you make—it’s that you stay in the game.
Next, let me share my view on the current market:
Crypto:
Right now, I believe the structure is range-bound. The range high is 6.7. I won’t draw the line, so I will set up my main short position at 6.5;
Storage / US stocks:
For storage, I’m bullish. The structure is also range-bound. Every time there’s a drop, you can buy for short-term trading, but be sure to control leverage. Long-term, I’m bullish. However, in the short term, I don’t think it’s going to break higher easily—at least not this month. A possible turning point would be after around the 25th of this month, because a very important economic meeting is expected to be held around the 28th. Why has my outlook shifted from bearish to bullish? Because I don’t expect a market crash in the second half of this year. With the US dollar falling and the related economic measures associated with Bessent, the US stock market has already undergone a structural change. What we’ll be discussing next is how many times the US will cut interest rates—not whether they will raise rates. But next year, the fireworks of a US stock market crash will be even more dazzling;
Precious metals:
For the big up move in the second half, I’m short because NFP was priced in early last Friday and price has risen too much in the short term. But for gold and silver, I’m very bullish in the second half. If you’re trading long-term, you can buy some gold and silver;
My plan from here:
1. Buy the crypto bottom. I’ll purchase spot BNB, SOL, and BTC, and I may also buy MSTR and possibly CRCL. If this month doesn’t crash hard, I might chase on the right side next month. If there’s a severe drop, then I’ll start building positions;
2. I won’t do storage trades, because my view is that it will be difficult to break through in the short term. My capital will be used to buy crypto assets. Unless there’s an exceptionally good setup, then I’ll try it as well;
3. Once this precious-metals short position is closed, I’ll continue to open longs and hold them.
#btc
What matters isn’t how much you make—it’s that you stay in the game.
Next, let me share my view on the current market:
Crypto:
Right now, I believe the structure is range-bound. The range high is 6.7. I won’t draw the line, so I will set up my main short position at 6.5;
Storage / US stocks:
For storage, I’m bullish. The structure is also range-bound. Every time there’s a drop, you can buy for short-term trading, but be sure to control leverage. Long-term, I’m bullish. However, in the short term, I don’t think it’s going to break higher easily—at least not this month. A possible turning point would be after around the 25th of this month, because a very important economic meeting is expected to be held around the 28th. Why has my outlook shifted from bearish to bullish? Because I don’t expect a market crash in the second half of this year. With the US dollar falling and the related economic measures associated with Bessent, the US stock market has already undergone a structural change. What we’ll be discussing next is how many times the US will cut interest rates—not whether they will raise rates. But next year, the fireworks of a US stock market crash will be even more dazzling;
Precious metals:
For the big up move in the second half, I’m short because NFP was priced in early last Friday and price has risen too much in the short term. But for gold and silver, I’m very bullish in the second half. If you’re trading long-term, you can buy some gold and silver;
My plan from here:
1. Buy the crypto bottom. I’ll purchase spot BNB, SOL, and BTC, and I may also buy MSTR and possibly CRCL. If this month doesn’t crash hard, I might chase on the right side next month. If there’s a severe drop, then I’ll start building positions;
2. I won’t do storage trades, because my view is that it will be difficult to break through in the short term. My capital will be used to buy crypto assets. Unless there’s an exceptionally good setup, then I’ll try it as well;
3. Once this precious-metals short position is closed, I’ll continue to open longs and hold them.
#btc