8.10 Golden Morning Outlook

Last Friday’s non-farm payrolls data came in far below expectations, causing the gold price to surge more than 7% week-on-week. It peaked at 4371 USD and closed above the 4340 level. On the morning of August 10, the gold price pulled back slightly to around 4321 and entered a high-range consolidation phase. After consecutive strong gains, momentum for the bulls has weakened, so near-term consolidation and correction are the main focus.

Cooling non-farm data boosts expectations for interest-rate cuts, while the weaker US dollar and Treasury yields support gold prices. Meanwhile, global central banks continue to buy gold, helping to underpin the base. This week’s key focus is Wednesday’s US CPI data. If inflation prints stronger than expected, it could limit the upside potential for gold.

The weekly market is confirmed by a large bullish candle, indicating a mid-term bullish trend. However, the daily and 4-hour indicators are severely overbought, suggesting there is a need for a pullback and correction. Near-term support is at 4300 and 4280. Resistance lies at 4370 and 4390–4400.

Trading recommendations:

1) If price pulls back and holds steady between 4280–4300, go long. Place a stop loss below 4270. Targets: 4360 and 4390.

2) On a rebound into 4390–4400, consider a small-size long position. Place a stop loss above 4410. Targets: 4320 and 4300.

Avoid chasing at high levels. Prefer selling near the top and buying near the bottom within the range, and wait for pullback support to plan long entries.
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