$ETH Yesterday, the original contract judgment: “The daily trend is up, but the spot price and open positions are not in sync.” The result about ~16 hours later is: the price is almost unchanged, still above the daily MA20; the structure has resilience, but the demand isn’t filled.
Price moved from $1916.47 to about $1914.35, a drop of ~0.11%. The 24-hour spot passive buy-sell ratio improved from 0.93 to 0.98; in the last 8 hours it has been around 1.00. It only shifted from sell-side dominance back to neutral. Meanwhile, USD-M open positions decreased by ~0.27%, and the funding rate fell from 0.0045% to 0.0025%. The price didn’t break down the structure, and it wasn’t driven by new positions.
Revisit status: thesis_supported. This means the observation hypothesis is supported—not trading profit, and not counting win rate. Next, before the 24-hour window ends, observe whether the spot ratio can continue staying above 1 and whether positions can resume expanding; if both align, the current “demand not confirmed” explanation will fail.#ETH #replay
Price moved from $1916.47 to about $1914.35, a drop of ~0.11%. The 24-hour spot passive buy-sell ratio improved from 0.93 to 0.98; in the last 8 hours it has been around 1.00. It only shifted from sell-side dominance back to neutral. Meanwhile, USD-M open positions decreased by ~0.27%, and the funding rate fell from 0.0045% to 0.0025%. The price didn’t break down the structure, and it wasn’t driven by new positions.
Revisit status: thesis_supported. This means the observation hypothesis is supported—not trading profit, and not counting win rate. Next, before the 24-hour window ends, observe whether the spot ratio can continue staying above 1 and whether positions can resume expanding; if both align, the current “demand not confirmed” explanation will fail.#ETH #replay