Bitcoin has come under strong pressure after a sharp decline, but not all analysts are reacting in panic. Furthermore, Efe Kelemci, known as Crypto Kid, emphasizes that despite market uncertainty, he consciously avoids shorts on Bitcoin. Moreover, his approach is based on technical analysis, macroeconomics, and the behavior of the futures market.
The current situation shows that short-term price movements can confuse even experienced investors.
Bitcoin fills the CME gap and confirms earlier warnings
Efe Kelemci (Crypto Kid) has pointed out the CME gap at 88,200 USD for weeks, which is why his analysis has been cautious from the start. While the market remained bullish around 97,000 USD, the analyst consistently warned of a decline. Ultimately, Bitcoin precisely filled this CME gap, confirming his earlier forecasts. As a result, this strengthened the credibility of the approach based on statistical market regularities.
At the same time, filling the gap at 88,200 USD created a new, smaller CME gap around 93,000 USD. Importantly, Crypto Kid emphasizes that the size of the gap does not matter, as its existence is what counts. Statistically, such a gap has about a 97% chance of closure in the future. Therefore, the analyst assumes a possible price movement upwards before further developments.
For this reason, this approach explains why Bitcoin is not currently an obvious short for him. In practice, the market often moves contrary to the expectations of the majority of participants. Moreover, liquidations of shorts after filling the upper gap are a real scenario. Consequently, such a move could surprise investors focused solely on declines.
Why the analyst does not short Bitcoin
In the short term, Bitcoin's momentum remains weak, but it is not unequivocally bearish. The chart shows a W formation, although it differs from the previous double top. Additionally, the price moves in a structure resembling a bear flag at significant support. At the same time, a neckline of the head and shoulders formation appears, increasing overall uncertainty.
Despite these signals, Efe Kelemci consistently avoids shorts on Bitcoin and Ethereum. The reason is a combination of technical CME gaps and the lack of clear confirmation of the trend. The analyst prefers to wait for the filling of the gap at 93,000 USD and the retest of the 200-day moving average. Moreover, a similar pattern has already occurred in the previous market cycle.
So Crypto Kid said during the recording:
“I decided that I will not enter into shorts. […] I am reluctant to enter into shorts on Ethereum. […] And I am also reluctant to enter into shorts on Bitcoin.”
Such an approach shows that not having a position can also be a conscious strategy. Importantly, Crypto Kid avoids excessive risk in conditions of heightened volatility. Instead, he carefully observes the market and waits for clearer signals. In practice, such an approach can be particularly valuable for beginner investors.
Price scenarios and realistic targets for declines
Many analysts warn of a deep crash in Bitcoin of around 67%, similar to previous cycles. However, Efe Kelemci considers such a scenario unlikely under current conditions. In his opinion, the correction may be shallower and more controlled. Therefore, the conservative target remains the range of mid-60,000 USD.
The analyst also points out that the mid-60s USD level is close to the production costs of Bitcoin. Historically, this fact has acted as strong support for the price. For this reason, he does not expect a drop to 30,000 USD or 20,000 USD. He considers such forecasts overly pessimistic.
It is therefore worth remembering the key assumptions of his scenario: possible closure of the CME gap at 93,000 USD, followed by a retest of the 200-day moving average and a moderate correction instead of a deep bear market. Importantly, this approach assumes patience rather than aggressive trading. Does this mean Bitcoin is safe in the short term? No, because volatility may still increase. However, according to Crypto Kid, the market is not currently in a state of panic selling.
Macroeconomics, politics, and the long-term picture of the market
The macroeconomic background remains challenging and simultaneously affects the cryptocurrency market. The S&P 500 is beginning to resemble the structure from the previous year, which was related to tariffs. Donald Trump is once again threatening tariffs against EU countries, which hits tech stocks. As a result, Bitcoin continues to behave like a tech stock rather than a risk-off asset.
An additional warning signal remains the behavior of the S&P 500 priced in gold. Breaking through the key line has historically often preceded a recession. This shows that short-term market risk remains high. At the same time, for many investors, this represents a long-term opportunity for Bitcoin.
During the conference in Davos, Trump surprised everyone with a positive comment regarding crypto. He announced support for the crypto market structure bill in Congress. New regulations may clearly define the status of commodities, securities, and memecoins. As a result, this could open the door for billions of dollars of institutional capital.
Efe Kelemci emphasizes that despite short-term caution, he accumulates BTC on the spot market daily. In the long term, he sees potential in Bitcoin measured in millions of dollars. He also expects strong volatility following the Supreme Court's decisions and the selection of a new Fed chair. Importantly, all potential candidates are known for their pro-crypto stance.
To familiarize yourself with the latest cryptocurrency market analysis from BeInCrypto, click here.
