The situation is fairly standard—nothing too dramatic. This week, the market is mainly characterized by a slow upward drift, a sort of “sink-in” immersion for the people who are stuck in it. The only point worth mentioning is that on Monday, the big pie inserted a needle to probe the downside, touching around the 62,200 area to test the bottom support. Overall, the market is mostly operating within a range, and during the oscillation, the center of oscillation has seen a slight lift. After that, the effect of the overhead pressure at 65,000 is very clear—there has still been no effective breakout and continuation. As expected, the market’s repair during the weekend also unfolded accordingly.

There weren’t any particularly standout points in this week’s live trading setup. It mainly focused on short-term moves, and there were very few swing-trading opportunities. But for a market structure dominated by range-bound oscillation, this is completely normal: the market’s trend is lackluster and the stability is relatively ideal. That said, there has been plenty of short-term “tug-of-war,” so setup opportunities have been limited as well. Therefore, this week’s layout notes are correspondingly fewer, but for friends who keep an eye on strategy ideas, there was still some meat to be had—each round of market volatility provided clear signals.

The original Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) also turned out to be nothing but a false hope—ultimately it was digested neutrally. Still, there’s something noteworthy everyone should know: the NFP figures are tied to expectations for the Fed’s September rate decision. If employment data performs well, it can effectively ease inflation concerns, which would cool down market expectations for rate hikes. However, relying solely on NFP data isn’t enough to determine the market’s overall direction. The second round of negotiations between the U.S. and Iran is still ongoing. The earlier 60-day ceasefire agreement is already effectively null and void. The contest in the strait region remains very intense. The optimistic statements unilaterally released by the U.S. cannot control the overall market trend. Going forward, we need to continuously focus on and track the subsequent progress of the negotiations.

I’ve been emphasizing to everyone: when the news backdrop is developing neutrally, the structure in technical analysis is the rule for positioning. On the weekly chart level, the market’s base is still consolidating and struggling to move; there’s been no breakthrough progress in the shifts between long and short. The support at 62,000 has been constantly exerting strength, and multiple attempts have failed to break through. What follows is a test by the bulls to push upward pressure around 67,000. This week we’ve reached 65,000. So in the future, the rebound can only go a bit higher, but whether the follow-through strength can continue with a breakout is self-evident. And the impact is also starting to show signs of weakness. Therefore, the rebound strength from this round of bottoming out is definitely not enough to form a breakout momentum.

As for why it’s said there will be a rebound that continues: you can clearly observe it from the daily-chart level. After the market finishes probing the bottom, it starts to stretch the market higher and keeps rising, breaking above the Bollinger Band midline. During the process, there is back-and-forth around the midline—mainly to stabilize. After a round of dipping breaks the midline, the price quickly stretches higher and rises again; sentiment gradually turns bullish. Therefore, in the short term, it’s inevitable that there will be some degree of continued market rebound. But like I said before: upside space is visible, yet it’s relatively limited. So before the rebound momentum runs out, there is still a little room. As for our future positioning, we can arrange short positions in line with this rebound phase.

$BTC For BTC (the big coin) in the 65,300-66,000 range, build short positions in batches. Target 62,000. For defense, watch levels above 67,500.

$ETH In the 1930-1980 interval, lay out short positions in batches. Target 1800; defense is focused on 2015 #BIP110软分叉尝试启动 #韩国拟放宽加密服务商大股东规则 #XRP守住1美元