Isn’t the market hard to do? When the U.S. stock storage sector drops, it drops even harder. Micron, Hynix, SanDisk, Western Digital, and Seagate all weakened together—Seagate even fell by 10 points. This isn’t a coincidence. The industry cycle has already started sliding downhill.
Before, when AI was hot, everyone stocked up like crazy. But now, demand on consumer end—phones, computers, and the like—has not been good, and inventories are piling up. Meanwhile, manufacturers don’t want to cut production and lose market share, so supply keeps increasing. DRAM and NAND chip prices continue to fall, and company profits are naturally squeezed.
Clearing inventory will take at least 2–3 quarters. Even if AI servers are still consuming chips, they can’t make up for the big gap in consumer electronics demand.
Especially for Seagate and Western Digital: aside from poor industry conditions, solid-state drives are steadily taking market share from mechanical hard drives, putting dual pressure on them.
In plain terms, we’re in a falling phase now. As long as inventory hasn’t been digested and chip prices haven’t stabilized, fundamentals won’t really turn around. If you rush to bottom-fish now, it’s easy to get trapped. In the short term, the market trend is likely still weak. That said, though it’s big talk—BTC and Ethereum volatility is getting more and more confined. K-line analysis is pretty much the same. If you can analyze BTC and ETH well, other products shouldn’t be much of an issue either; just strictly control your position size.
Before, when AI was hot, everyone stocked up like crazy. But now, demand on consumer end—phones, computers, and the like—has not been good, and inventories are piling up. Meanwhile, manufacturers don’t want to cut production and lose market share, so supply keeps increasing. DRAM and NAND chip prices continue to fall, and company profits are naturally squeezed.
Clearing inventory will take at least 2–3 quarters. Even if AI servers are still consuming chips, they can’t make up for the big gap in consumer electronics demand.
Especially for Seagate and Western Digital: aside from poor industry conditions, solid-state drives are steadily taking market share from mechanical hard drives, putting dual pressure on them.
In plain terms, we’re in a falling phase now. As long as inventory hasn’t been digested and chip prices haven’t stabilized, fundamentals won’t really turn around. If you rush to bottom-fish now, it’s easy to get trapped. In the short term, the market trend is likely still weak. That said, though it’s big talk—BTC and Ethereum volatility is getting more and more confined. K-line analysis is pretty much the same. If you can analyze BTC and ETH well, other products shouldn’t be much of an issue either; just strictly control your position size.