64700 has already been swept; BTC is not a chasing-short position right now. After the daily chart rebounded from 62229 to 65358, price repeatedly surged above 65000 and left upper wicks; following the 65358 high, the 4-hour rebound peak shifted downward, and the descending pressure line still hasn’t been reclaimed. On the 1-hour chart, price was pushed down from 65163 to 64700: the bearish candle body is strong and the rebound is weak. The structure has already shifted into a high-level pullback, but the daily major support hasn’t been broken yet.
Bajie’s view: the main force is more likely to sweep again after triggering the long stop-losses below 64700, and then watch for acceptance in the 64600—64450 area. If here price stops falling on lower volume and then reclaims 64850, there’s a chance for a rebound toward 64980—65150. If the rebound lacks volume and can’t get back above 65000, then continue looking at 64200—64100. OI dropped from 107494 to 106914, indicating this sell-off is mainly driven by long liquidation/de-risking first. The long/short accounts ratio rose to 1.158 and the funding rate is positive, meaning longs are still somewhat crowded, but new shorts haven’t fully built up in volume yet.
Today’s high to look at is 64980—65150, and the low is 64450—64600. Since 64700 has already been swept, it can’t be treated as a new target for a fresh low. If 64600 breaks down with a volume-backed bearish body and the subsequent retest fails (can’t reclaim), then the downside extension is 64100. Only if 65163 is regained on volume and holds, would the short path be invalidated—then and only then would upside space above 65350 reopen.
Bajie’s view: the main force is more likely to sweep again after triggering the long stop-losses below 64700, and then watch for acceptance in the 64600—64450 area. If here price stops falling on lower volume and then reclaims 64850, there’s a chance for a rebound toward 64980—65150. If the rebound lacks volume and can’t get back above 65000, then continue looking at 64200—64100. OI dropped from 107494 to 106914, indicating this sell-off is mainly driven by long liquidation/de-risking first. The long/short accounts ratio rose to 1.158 and the funding rate is positive, meaning longs are still somewhat crowded, but new shorts haven’t fully built up in volume yet.
Today’s high to look at is 64980—65150, and the low is 64450—64600. Since 64700 has already been swept, it can’t be treated as a new target for a fresh low. If 64600 breaks down with a volume-backed bearish body and the subsequent retest fails (can’t reclaim), then the downside extension is 64100. Only if 65163 is regained on volume and holds, would the short path be invalidated—then and only then would upside space above 65350 reopen.