Let me share a potential ETH swing trading opportunity: (Please watch patiently to the end—believe it or not, you’ll have a clear judgment of the current market.)
Macro logic: Above ETH 1900, there are actually decent places to short, because the market hasn’t reached the time point for a crypto bull market yet. (The current crypto market in a bear phase can only be defined as a risk asset, so it’s very liquidity-dependent.)
1: The U.S.-Iran war won’t end in the short term. As long as it doesn’t hit the U.S.’s interests, Trump will repeatedly use the war to apply pressure and extract benefits. (This means oil prices may continue to fluctuate at high levels, inflation won’t come down easily, and it also means the market probably won’t price in rate-cut expectations aggressively—so it’s hard for it to surge and kick off a bull market.)
2: The U.S. midterm election is roughly on November 3. Since Trump is very likely to lose due to repeated self-sabotage, his latest approval rating is only 35%. If Trump and the Republican Party fail in the election, the House of Representatives will be controlled by the Democrats. At that time, Trump will become a puppet president with no real say in decisions, and the market may start trading and pricing in this expected sharp decline. This could also be the last big drop for the crypto market.
K-line logic: The 1900–2000 area can be considered one of the strongest resistance zones in recent months. Shorting here offers a good risk-reward setup. Take-profit is roughly around 1550. If the market really starts pricing in this expectation, even U.S. stocks could drop hard (capital fears uncertainty the most). That’s why I think the probability of profit for shorting here is extremely high. If you can’t be the one driving the pump, then in trading you can only set up your position before the expectation is fully priced in. Once the expectation is truly traded and finished, if you enter then, you’ll most likely lose money.
Finally, pay attention to the risk points: For swing positions, it’s best to keep the position size small, otherwise you won’t be able to hold it. Also, Bitcoin is currently around 6.5w and may very well go to 6.7w, while Ethereum may go to 2000—manage your position size accordingly. (Not easy to make; hope you, bro, can hit a like.) #ETH
Macro logic: Above ETH 1900, there are actually decent places to short, because the market hasn’t reached the time point for a crypto bull market yet. (The current crypto market in a bear phase can only be defined as a risk asset, so it’s very liquidity-dependent.)
1: The U.S.-Iran war won’t end in the short term. As long as it doesn’t hit the U.S.’s interests, Trump will repeatedly use the war to apply pressure and extract benefits. (This means oil prices may continue to fluctuate at high levels, inflation won’t come down easily, and it also means the market probably won’t price in rate-cut expectations aggressively—so it’s hard for it to surge and kick off a bull market.)
2: The U.S. midterm election is roughly on November 3. Since Trump is very likely to lose due to repeated self-sabotage, his latest approval rating is only 35%. If Trump and the Republican Party fail in the election, the House of Representatives will be controlled by the Democrats. At that time, Trump will become a puppet president with no real say in decisions, and the market may start trading and pricing in this expected sharp decline. This could also be the last big drop for the crypto market.
K-line logic: The 1900–2000 area can be considered one of the strongest resistance zones in recent months. Shorting here offers a good risk-reward setup. Take-profit is roughly around 1550. If the market really starts pricing in this expectation, even U.S. stocks could drop hard (capital fears uncertainty the most). That’s why I think the probability of profit for shorting here is extremely high. If you can’t be the one driving the pump, then in trading you can only set up your position before the expectation is fully priced in. Once the expectation is truly traded and finished, if you enter then, you’ll most likely lose money.
Finally, pay attention to the risk points: For swing positions, it’s best to keep the position size small, otherwise you won’t be able to hold it. Also, Bitcoin is currently around 6.5w and may very well go to 6.7w, while Ethereum may go to 2000—manage your position size accordingly. (Not easy to make; hope you, bro, can hit a like.) #ETH