ARC After this pump topped out around 0.078 and then got smashed back to around 0.062u, I took a look at the contracts and the data first—here’s my conclusion: I won’t chase from this level; I’ll wait for it to choose a direction.
I do recognize the rebound. Yesterday it was indeed pulled hard—up by nearly 20% in a day. The move off the floor was real. But the problem is right here: when the price surged to the highs, it was immediately slapped back down. From the peak it’s already fallen about 20%. In the short term, the buy-side is clearly no longer able to hold.
The key is in the contracts. Open interest piled up another roughly 30% within a day. The market effectively marked a strong bullish quadrant, but active buy orders are only a little over 40%—sell orders are actually pressing harder. In a healthy strong trend, rising price with rising open interest should go together. But since the price didn’t keep pushing higher and the buy-side is still shrinking, it turns into a situation where the long side keeps stacking up more and more, yet no one is willing to step in and lift the market.
The big players also seem a bit loose. The long/short position ratio is still over 2x and longs are still more than 70%, but the proportion of longs is starting to drift downward. After a big run, if open interest keeps building, leverage risk is accumulating. Once the funds can’t keep up, volatility will amplify.
To put it simply: this rebound is real, but the current rhythm is better suited to waiting for a pullback—see whether there’s interest to absorb at lower levels. Don’t chase longs at a spot where the buy-side has shrunk. It’s better to let it work out its direction on its own than to force it up from here.
#arc $ARC
I do recognize the rebound. Yesterday it was indeed pulled hard—up by nearly 20% in a day. The move off the floor was real. But the problem is right here: when the price surged to the highs, it was immediately slapped back down. From the peak it’s already fallen about 20%. In the short term, the buy-side is clearly no longer able to hold.
The key is in the contracts. Open interest piled up another roughly 30% within a day. The market effectively marked a strong bullish quadrant, but active buy orders are only a little over 40%—sell orders are actually pressing harder. In a healthy strong trend, rising price with rising open interest should go together. But since the price didn’t keep pushing higher and the buy-side is still shrinking, it turns into a situation where the long side keeps stacking up more and more, yet no one is willing to step in and lift the market.
The big players also seem a bit loose. The long/short position ratio is still over 2x and longs are still more than 70%, but the proportion of longs is starting to drift downward. After a big run, if open interest keeps building, leverage risk is accumulating. Once the funds can’t keep up, volatility will amplify.
To put it simply: this rebound is real, but the current rhythm is better suited to waiting for a pullback—see whether there’s interest to absorb at lower levels. Don’t chase longs at a spot where the buy-side has shrunk. It’s better to let it work out its direction on its own than to force it up from here.
#arc $ARC