Just a quick guess: in this current bull market, Bitcoin’s final price should land between $109,200 and $126,000.
From the moment people began paying attention to Bitcoin when it was $1, the first five-year “pre-sovereignty” era (农权时代) ended with a peak price of $380, a gain of 380×. (Of course, in my personal view, it should probably start from $10 instead—$10 was Bitcoin’s early critical threshold and also an accepted value, a test of sorts. So, theoretically, that would make it 38×.)
The second five-year “merchant sovereignty” era ended—by the 2019 peak—with a highest price of $8,400, for a gain of 22×.
The third five-year “political sovereignty” era hasn’t fully played out yet. As of today, the highest price is $66,000, a gain of 7.8×. In theory, the peak for these five years won’t exceed 22×; the peak should reach about 13–15× of $8,400. That would place this five-year high between $109,200 and $126,000.
Accompanying Bitcoin’s run-up is not only the halving, but also a weakening of the growth rate itself. This is a reasonable development pattern for things in general. And once Bitcoin breaks the $100,000 threshold, it should remain firmly above $75,000 to $80,000 for a long time afterward.
Stability is far more important for traditional finance and governance than upside gains. Since the next phase emphasizes what is reasonable, compliant, and legal, this also marks the end of the rough, lawless playbook from the earlier “farm/merchant” era (草莽时代). Those from that earlier era who had already profited heavily won’t just give up either. The era when clones (shanzhai) and chaos spread may return. No one wants to have their rights stripped away. Therefore, one era arriving also means people in the next era may feel lost. Looking back, when the merchant era arrived, there weren’t many farmer elites who survived the first five years; and with the arrival of the political era, there also won’t be many merchants who survive.
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