橙子Joyce

On August 9, according to CME’s “Fed Watch” data, the probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged in September is currently 55.6%, while the probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike is 44.4%.

Institutional analysis points out that, after the U.S. CPI is expected to decline 0.4% month-over-month in June, markets generally expect it to rise 0.1% month-over-month in July. Excluding fuel and food, the core CPI is expected to be 0.2% month-over-month and 2.5% year-over-year, the smallest year-over-year increase since February. After the release of a weak July nonfarm payrolls report on Friday, slower inflation growth may help ease the Federal Reserve’s internal inflation concerns. Previously, at the July 29 meeting, three officials voted in favor of a rate hike.

The CPI report may show that pressure from energy-related prices has eased. This pressure had surged sharply in the months following the end of February, when the U.S. went to war with Iran. In early July, retail gasoline prices fell to their lowest level in nearly four months, then rebounded by the end of the month to above $4 per gallon. The report may also show that airfares have declined as jet fuel costs move toward stabilization.

August 9, Cathie Wood: Bitcoin and stablecoins are likely to be the two biggest beneficiaries of the smart-agent business transformation. “Wood Lady” Cathie Wood believes that the latest employment report may look concerning on the surface, but the reality is not as bad as it seems. What truly matters is the economic shift behind the employment data. Currently, the U.S. federal budget deficit as a share of GDP is 5.6%. She believes this level is similar to the early 1980s under Reaganomics; if productivity and technology adoption continue to accelerate in line with ARK’s expectations, the ratio could come close to 5% by year-end. The bigger risk in the future may not be inflation, but deflation—especially for companies that fail to adopt AI and productivity tools.

In oil, an oversupply is taking shape. After the UAE exited OPEC in May, its production rose to a historical high. Cathie Wood believes oil prices could fall significantly and views this as a deflationary driver for most regions of the world. At the same time, capital expenditures have already broken out of the range seen over the past 30 years. She believes market concerns about an AI bubble are exaggerated, and that the market is still in the early stage of a technological revolution.

In crypto assets, Cathie Wood says that Bitcoin’s performance relative to gold is stabilizing again, and she believes that both Bitcoin and stablecoins could be the two primary beneficiaries of the smart-agent business transformation.

US July jobs report shatters the “employment resilience” narrative: new jobs -23,000 (vs. +80,000 expected). The combined April and May figure was revised down by 103,000, and the three-month average has been dragged to only about 20,000. The labor force participation rate also fell to a five-year low—this is not just single-month noise, but a continuous confirmation that hiring demand is generally weakening.

The market’s first reaction was straightforward: the bullet for further rate hikes has been defused. The probability of a September rate hike dropped sharply from the 55%–60% range to around 44%, and expectations for the number of hikes over the year in federal funds futures were cut from 1.35 to just over 1.1. The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note jumped down from 4.68% to around 4.65%, the US dollar index broke below 99.5, and gold surged more than 2% in a single day, crossing above 4,350–4,400. The Nasdaq rose 1.3%. The AI supply chain and optical communications continued to draw funds, and even BTC benefited as risk appetite warmed up and caught its breath.

But we’re nowhere near time to pop champagne. This pass has already been sent into the opponent’s half—now the decisive kick is the next CPI (July CPI will be released on August 12, followed by PPI and PCE).

• If inflation continues trending lower, “weak employment + weak inflation” will completely shut the door on Fed rate hikes. The front-end of Treasuries and the dollar will face continued pressure, and liquidity trades in gold/tech stocks/BTC can carry on;

• If oil prices are pushed back up by developments in the Middle East or supply disruptions, CPI will turn upward and the situation will flip into the most troublesome scenario: “weak employment + strong inflation.” The Fed would then be stuck in the middle—unable to hike (for fear of puncturing jobs) and unable to cut (for fear of inflation losing its anchor)—and will likely stay on hold, while the market will quickly unwind the “easing premium.”

The prevailing institutional view right now is: “weak but not breaking; the Fed will wait and see.” Both Huachuang and Dongwu believe that keeping interest rates unchanged through the rest of the year is the baseline case. BlackRock’s Rick Rieder even said bluntly that “there isn’t much point in hiking rates now,” but the Wach side still keeps the option of a September hike if inflation remains too hot. In other words, the jobs report has only carried the ball to the edge of the box—whether the CPI shot is off to the left or to the right will determine whether global liquidity keeps expanding or tightens again. Crude oil and tariff transmission are the most uncontrollable variables in this play.
#US July jobs report unexpectedly declines

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💰💰Wealth is about businesses and assets that can generate returns for you even while you’re asleep—for example, computer programs that run at night to provide services to customers, and funds that are reinvested into other assets and businesses.

🏘️🏚️Houses can be considered a form of wealth because you can rent them out, although—compared to running a business—renting property is less efficient in terms of land use.

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On August 9, Apple is testing storage chips from CXMT (ChangXin Memory Technologies) across multiple product lines, including iPhone and MacBook, and has begun preliminary supply negotiations with CXMT, aiming to use the related chips in some devices sold in China. According to insiders, Apple wants the White House’s approval for the cooperation. As the AI boom has tightened supply of storage chips and driven up costs, Apple is raising product prices worldwide, and obtaining China-based supply sources may help ease shortages.

Current U.S. regulations prohibit companies from transferring technology to CXMT, including sharing communication technology details and product specifications. As a result, Apple effectively cannot order customized chips from the company, but it can purchase standardized products and negotiate pricing. Even if Apple complies with the relevant rules, it may still seek support from the Trump administration due to political influence. Using standardized chips may also force Apple to redesign parts of some products.

CXMT’s production capacity this year is nearly at full load, leaving limited room to supply international new customers. HP and Acer have used small quantities of CXMT chips in devices sold outside the U.S. and are seeking to lock in more supply for next year. Some CXMT product prices are on par with Micron, SK hynix, and Samsung, and certain products are even higher. The company’s revenue in the second quarter grew by more than eightfold year over year; based on revenue, it accounted for 7% of the global DRAM market, and it plans to increase capacity to more than twice the current level by 2028.

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On August 10, SemiAnalysis' latest report said that after assessing all SpaceX suitable site locations and available gas-fired power generation equipment, the firm believes SpaceX’s goal of adding more than 10GW of computing power by the end of 2027 is feasible. Musk previously said in SpaceX’s first earnings presentation that the company’s “conservative” target is to build and deliver 6 to 8GW of incremental computing power in a single year in 2027, with upside potential possibly exceeding 10GW. Based on approximately $50 billion in capital expenditures per GW, this would translate to capital spending of $300 billion to $500 billion in 2027.
SemiAnalysis believes that the high profit margins in AI inference is an important driver of the expansion of computing demand. Its model shows that when OpenAI and Anthropic provide API inference services on the GB300 cluster, they can generate more than $100 billion in annual revenue per GW. If calculated using a rental price of $3 per GPU per hour, the annual cost per GW is about $12 billion, and the inference gross margin exceeds 60%, with some flagship models potentially exceeding 85%.
Microsoft’s computing shortfall could bring large orders to SpaceX. SemiAnalysis estimates that the $250 billion infrastructure-as-a-service agreement signed by Microsoft and OpenAI in October 2025 corresponds to about 7GW of computing power, and says that so far this year Microsoft has signed binding contracts for more than 10GW through mechanisms such as leasing, building in-house, and long-term power purchase agreements. The firm believes that the approximately 3GW computing contract with a total value of about $150 billion between Microsoft and SpaceX is “not impossible,” one reason being that SpaceX can offer a 90-day cancellation clause, reducing Microsoft’s financial risk.
The report also noted that SpaceX’s advantage lies in quickly building computing infrastructure. For example, the 300MW facility of Colossus 1 was completed in 122 days, and the Southaven power plant’s capacity expanded from about 495MW to 1.7GW within several months. SemiAnalysis expects that if half of the computing capacity added by SpaceX in 2027 is used for commercial inference, and the rest for training the Grok and Cursor teams, the company’s annual recurring revenue could reach $300 billion by the end of 2027.
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Overnight Friday Musk Starship Plan
SPCX teams up with Tesla to move into the AI chip arena, sparking a sharp surge
A 105 double-bottom structure has formed, with a downside-support order in place
Institutions have entered a buy-the-dip sweep mode—investing like legendary Cathie Wood; credit where it’s due 👍
He is the teacher of Bessent and Waush; a top-tier macro hedge fund manager on Wall Street, and he was also Soros’s gold partner. Born in 1953 in Pittsburgh, USA. Earned two bachelor’s degrees in English and economics from Bowdoin College.

Founded Duquesne Capital in 1981. During the period when he managed external funds from 1986–2010, he achieved an annualized compound return of about 30%, with 24 consecutive years without a losing year.

From 1988–2000, he served concurrently as Chief Investment Officer of the Quantum Fund. In 1992, he teamed up with Soros to short the British pound, making his name in a single battle.

After 2010, he shifted to a family office, focusing on concentrated growth + macro timing. He holds large positions in AI, biotech, and resource sectors. Over the long term, his performance has significantly outpaced the market. He is one of the very few top investors globally who can span multiple cycles and consistently create outstanding returns. 10,000-yuan 🧧 red envelope for the long-term industrial-capital direction $SPCX $BNB
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keep calm and carry on

Xiao z, are you together with @厂妹琪琪想要暴富耶 ? Back then, was #predictons really accurate?
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In today’s crypto market, disorder abounds: scams run rampant and filthy waves surge endlessly. LUCiC emerges in response, upholding transparent contracts and the理念 of forming alliances with market makers. With its original intention to be genuinely beneficial and its commitment to full, open disclosure, it has become a clear stream amid the muddy waters.
The Bright Community, as the only consensus community of LUCiC, stands out among countless others. It follows the right path, stays true to its初心, teaches people how to avoid pitfalls, creates wealth, and vows to lead more like-minded individuals toward the light!
Welcome to follow the Bright Community, learn about LUCiC. From here, it’s one battle—no need for another!

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Topic Synthesis + Objective Analysis: Let’s discuss the logic behind this in light of the current crypto market landscape

I. Core Viewpoints Distilled

1. The profit threshold in this crypto bull cycle is much higher than in past bull cycles;
2. Problems with the previous cycle: an oversupply of low-quality altcoins flooded the market, making it difficult to identify high-quality projects; most altcoins underperformed the broader market;
3. The capital “race track” has expanded enormously—crypto is no longer an isolated speculative oasis. Tokenization of real-world assets (RWAs), U.S. stock individual shares, AI-themed stocks, and various ETFs have diverted massive amounts of hot money;
4. Market capital has been diluted across multiple tracks, making it hard for both existing and incremental funds to concentrate and surge into the crypto space;
5. Forward-looking market outlook: the vast majority of altcoins will face long-term downside pressure. Only leading projects deeply focused on real-world asset RWA tokenization infrastructure have the potential to break out of their own downtrend and outperform the broader market.

II. In-Depth Breakdown of the Reasonableness

1. Capital Diversion Is the Key Variable

During the last major bull cycle, there were fewer high-beta speculative options available to retail and speculative capital. Crypto was a niche yet extremely hot mainstream theme—hot money flocked into the coin market, fueling massive altcoin blow-off-runs.
Now global investment products are far more diverse:

- Traditional finance: AI technology stocks, broad-market/sector ETFs, commodities, and overseas-listed company targets;
- New on-chain tracks: RWA tokenized securities, bonds, and real estate—moving traditional financial assets onto the blockchain;

Capital seeks returns and will allocate to the better options rather than blindly flooding into all kinds of “air” altcoins. The era when the coin market alone monopolized massive amounts of hot money is already over.

2. The Altcoin Survival Environment Has Deteriorated Completely

——The road ahead is wide, and everything goes smoothly.

Wide road ahead, everything goes well.

A bit hungry, a bit missing you. Maybe I should open a shop and trade you for a meal.💞💞💞
A bit hungry, a bit missing you. Maybe I should open a shop and trade you for a meal.💞💞💞

🔆Good morning
It’s a brand-new day again. Flip the page on yesterday’s fatigue and worries
Don’t dwell on the past or be anxious about the future. Just make the most of the present—keep working hard, and you’ll see results

rRules stay bless
follow me
#SouthKoreaProposesLooseningCryptoShareholderRules