Many people can’t tell the difference: a short-term explosive surge in a fake/“shanzhai” token is not the same as a mainstream coin with long-term potential. Here’s a set of practical screening criteria that ordinary people can implement right away, to distinguish “long-term narrative coins” from “short-term hype targets.”
1. Step One: Hard thresholds—filter out 90% of junk first
Only if you meet the following basic conditions are you eligible to be added to your watchlist:
Market cap stays within the top 100, with top mainstream coins prioritized;
Daily trading volume is sufficient and depth is deep enough—so you won’t run into “can’t buy when you want” or “can’t sell when you want.”
Listed on major compliant exchanges—not just traded on small niche second-tier exchanges.
Source code is open; GitHub has long-term ongoing updates—not a team that goes inactive after publishing a whitepaper.
Avoid short-term large unlock token types: check the unlock schedule—if in the next 1–2 months there are big share releases from investors or the team, prioritize exclusion (long-term sell pressure suppresses the price).
The token has real utility (fees, staking, governance)—it can’t be only “speculation value.”
❌ Exclude directly: pure MEME coins, dead “shitcoin” ecosystems with no real community, no ongoing development, very low circulating supply, and coins where the top ten “whales” hold an excessively high proportion.
2. Five core dimensions—judge a mainstream coin’s real potential
1) The moat of the sector (most important)
Prioritize coins in sectors with real demand and clear competitive landscapes:
Underlying L1/L2 base chains ($BTC, $ETH): industry infrastructure with extremely strong winner-takes-most effects;
Leaders in niche tracks: oracle $LINK, DEX leader $UNI, platform coin $BNB;
Distinctive differentiated tracks: cross-border payments $XRP, domestic chain $CFX;
Red-flag to avoid: red-ocean sectors—lots of similar chains that are indistinguishable, competing on sameness with no unique advantage, which makes it hard to break out into an independent trend.
2) Tokenomics (determines long-term sell pressure)
Focus on four points:
1) Is there a maximum supply?
2) Are the team and early investors’ allocation percentages reasonable?
3) Is the unlock schedule smooth enough to avoid concentrated large releases?
4) Are there demand mechanisms such as burning, staking, or buybacks?
Typical negative examples: persistent high inflation, continuous release of new coins, staying in a diluted state for the long term—making it difficult to sustain a strong market trend.
3) Ecosystem and on-chain real activity (reject “paper projects”)
Don’t just look at promotional news—look at real data:
On-chain active addresses, number of transactions, and TVL locked amounts;
Number of DApps and number of developers;
1. Step One: Hard thresholds—filter out 90% of junk first
Only if you meet the following basic conditions are you eligible to be added to your watchlist:
Market cap stays within the top 100, with top mainstream coins prioritized;
Daily trading volume is sufficient and depth is deep enough—so you won’t run into “can’t buy when you want” or “can’t sell when you want.”
Listed on major compliant exchanges—not just traded on small niche second-tier exchanges.
Source code is open; GitHub has long-term ongoing updates—not a team that goes inactive after publishing a whitepaper.
Avoid short-term large unlock token types: check the unlock schedule—if in the next 1–2 months there are big share releases from investors or the team, prioritize exclusion (long-term sell pressure suppresses the price).
The token has real utility (fees, staking, governance)—it can’t be only “speculation value.”
❌ Exclude directly: pure MEME coins, dead “shitcoin” ecosystems with no real community, no ongoing development, very low circulating supply, and coins where the top ten “whales” hold an excessively high proportion.
2. Five core dimensions—judge a mainstream coin’s real potential
1) The moat of the sector (most important)
Prioritize coins in sectors with real demand and clear competitive landscapes:
Underlying L1/L2 base chains ($BTC, $ETH): industry infrastructure with extremely strong winner-takes-most effects;
Leaders in niche tracks: oracle $LINK, DEX leader $UNI, platform coin $BNB;
Distinctive differentiated tracks: cross-border payments $XRP, domestic chain $CFX;
Red-flag to avoid: red-ocean sectors—lots of similar chains that are indistinguishable, competing on sameness with no unique advantage, which makes it hard to break out into an independent trend.
2) Tokenomics (determines long-term sell pressure)
Focus on four points:
1) Is there a maximum supply?
2) Are the team and early investors’ allocation percentages reasonable?
3) Is the unlock schedule smooth enough to avoid concentrated large releases?
4) Are there demand mechanisms such as burning, staking, or buybacks?
Typical negative examples: persistent high inflation, continuous release of new coins, staying in a diluted state for the long term—making it difficult to sustain a strong market trend.
3) Ecosystem and on-chain real activity (reject “paper projects”)
Don’t just look at promotional news—look at real data:
On-chain active addresses, number of transactions, and TVL locked amounts;
Number of DApps and number of developers;