BitMine Immersion Technologies (BMNR) is sending mixed signals to traders. On one hand, the company continues to expand its staking business on Ethereum, strengthening its long-term treasury strategy. On the other hand, the price structure of BMNR shares is weakening, and a bearish pattern is taking shape on the daily chart.
In the last six months, BMNR has lost about 21%, showing constant pressure despite a slight rebound of 4% recorded in the last five days. This contrast highlights the central conflict: optimism driven by staking is growing, but the chart signals risk. Whether the bullish narrative can overcome the technical damage now depends on a key price zone.
A bearish head and shoulders pattern keeps BMNR under pressure.
BMNR is forming a clear head and shoulders pattern on the daily chart. This configuration usually manifests after a long bullish phase and signals that buyers are losing control. The left shoulder and head are already present, while the right shoulder has formed near recent highs.
What makes this situation even more concerning is the current price position relative to trend indicators. BMNR is trading below all the major exponential moving averages. The 20-day EMA was the last short-term support holding the structure together, now lost. When the price is below these averages, rebounds tend to fade instead of turning into trends.
The neckline of this pattern slopes slightly downward, increasing the bearish risk because sellers remain in control. If the neckline were to give way, the structure would open the door to a further drop of 33%, potentially prolonging the bearish trend of the last six months. This is the technical context traders are facing as positive news about staking increases.
This tension draws attention to capital flows and whether fresh demand is truly entering the stock to prevent its collapse.
Ethereum staking supports capital flows, but the correlation increases the risk.
The ongoing expansion of staking on Ethereum by BitMine is currently the strongest bullish factor supporting the stock. Staking locks tokens, generates recurring yields, and signals a long-term commitment rather than mere short-term speculation. This explains why selling pressure has not accelerated despite the bearish structure of the chart, as some buyers may respond to the specific positive narrative of staking.
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Capital flow indicators reflect this optimism. The Chaikin Money Flow, which tracks whether large capital is entering or leaving an asset, is pushing against a descending trendline. This suggests that accumulation pressure is forming beneath the surface, even though the price of BMNR shares remains weak.
However, this signal is not new. Similar CMF configurations at the beginning of the month did not follow through and were met with sharp retracements. For this signal to be relevant today, the CMF must first break the descending trendline and then reclaim zero. Without these confirmations, inflows remain uncertain rather than decisive.
The correlation adds an additional level of risk. BMNR shows a moderate positive correlation of about 0.51 with Ethereum. This means that the weakness of ETH often also reflects on the stock. With Ethereum down 2.5% in the last 24 hours at the time of publication, further pressure on ETH could limit capital inflows and hinder any breakout attempts of the CMF.
This makes the price behavior at key levels the final decisive factor.
$30 separates stabilization from the collapse of BMNR stock prices.
Now everything converges towards a single level. The $30 area represents one of the key support lines. BMNR's stock price briefly lost this level at the beginning of January but quickly recovered, highlighting demand at that point. Staying above $30 would give BitMine the opportunity to regain the 20-day EMA as well.
A prolonged break below $30 would expose $25. A break below this level would confirm the head and shoulders breakdown, opening the way for further declines for BMNR, with targets down to the $19 area.
Maintaining $30 does not automatically mean recovery. It only avoids structural damage. For the bearish configuration to weaken, BMNR would need to reclaim $34 and stabilize above the right shoulder area. This would also require a recovery above the major moving averages, something the stock has been struggling to achieve in recent weeks.
BitMine has been building a solid staking position on Ethereum for months, and this strategy continues to attract long-term capital. However, in the short term, it is still the chart that commands.
As long as the $30 level is not decisively defended, the risk of a wider correction will remain, regardless of how strong the staking narrative becomes.
