On Polymarket, someone is betting that Trump will nominate Powell to continue as Fed Chair.
Yes, you read that right.
In the topic "Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair?" besides Kevin Warsh leading at 59%, there are a bunch of outrageous options.
Powell continuing his term? 0.1% probability, over $700 in bets.
Trump himself? Although no one is betting on that, it is still listed.
The $700 is likely being treated like a lottery ticket.
Spending a few hundred dollars, just in case Trump really goes off the rails? The odds are high, and if it hits, it's a hundred times return.
What’s interesting in the prediction market is to see how much money is on those "impossible" options.
What does $700 indicate? It shows that at least a small group of people believes Powell continuing his term is not a completely zero probability event.
Or it indicates that the casino never lacks for people wanting to buy lottery tickets.
Would you spend a few dollars to bet on a 0.1% option?
Yes, you read that right.
In the topic "Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair?" besides Kevin Warsh leading at 59%, there are a bunch of outrageous options.
Powell continuing his term? 0.1% probability, over $700 in bets.
Trump himself? Although no one is betting on that, it is still listed.
The $700 is likely being treated like a lottery ticket.
Spending a few hundred dollars, just in case Trump really goes off the rails? The odds are high, and if it hits, it's a hundred times return.
What’s interesting in the prediction market is to see how much money is on those "impossible" options.
What does $700 indicate? It shows that at least a small group of people believes Powell continuing his term is not a completely zero probability event.
Or it indicates that the casino never lacks for people wanting to buy lottery tickets.
Would you spend a few dollars to bet on a 0.1% option?