Everyone is saying that fear/greed 30 means it’s a fear zone and you should buy the dip. But I think the real thing to be afraid of this month isn’t the market—it’s your own ledger.
I calculated my actual spending this month: the cost basis of holding 12,000 BNB allocated to the market maker (MM) agreement renewal fee, travel for due diligence on two new projects, plus renewing the office lease in Wan Chai—just in operating costs, I burned nearly 180,000 U.
What about income? This month’s TGE has two projects with a vesting structure of cliff 6 months and linear vesting over 18 months, which means not a cent has been unlocked yet—so the paper profit is all locked up. The only cash flow actually received is a consultation fee of under 40,000 U.
In a month with a net loss of 140,000 U, the fact that BTC went up 1.2% to 65,035 has nothing to do with me. The biggest misconception in retail investors’ minds is that “whales aren’t afraid of dips.” Whales aren’t afraid of falling prices—their fear is vesting not being unlocked while operating costs are burning day after day. Last week, a founder told me that after their project’s TGE, the team tokens were locked for 12 months—yet by the third month they couldn’t even pay salaries. That’s the real way projects die.
I calculated my actual spending this month: the cost basis of holding 12,000 BNB allocated to the market maker (MM) agreement renewal fee, travel for due diligence on two new projects, plus renewing the office lease in Wan Chai—just in operating costs, I burned nearly 180,000 U.
What about income? This month’s TGE has two projects with a vesting structure of cliff 6 months and linear vesting over 18 months, which means not a cent has been unlocked yet—so the paper profit is all locked up. The only cash flow actually received is a consultation fee of under 40,000 U.
In a month with a net loss of 140,000 U, the fact that BTC went up 1.2% to 65,035 has nothing to do with me. The biggest misconception in retail investors’ minds is that “whales aren’t afraid of dips.” Whales aren’t afraid of falling prices—their fear is vesting not being unlocked while operating costs are burning day after day. Last week, a founder told me that after their project’s TGE, the team tokens were locked for 12 months—yet by the third month they couldn’t even pay salaries. That’s the real way projects die.