Main Takeaways

  • Most bStocks trading happens while U.S. markets are shut: closed hours accounted for 62% of bStocks volume on Binance in July, and roughly $1.5B changed hands while the NYSE was dark.

  • Across seven weekends, the on-chain weekend price captured a median 92% of the eventual Monday gap, and called the direction correctly on every move above 3% that we observed.

  • Accuracy rose with the size of the move, from 81% on the smallest moves to near-total capture on the biggest. 

The NYSE closes at 4pm Friday, but the world keeps moving. News continues to arrive whether or not there's a platform to price it. Traders have had to work around this gap for decades. Sit and wait until Monday's 9:30 open absorbs everything that happened over the weekend.

With bStocks, waiting is optional. We've gone back through the data to see what happens when traders don't have to wait – when they can, well, trade and capitalize on market opportunities at any time. 

The Market is Busy While Wall Street Sleeps

On July 28, bStocks crossed $500M in AUM. As of writing, it is the fastest-growing tokenized security product since its launch in June, and it now accounts for roughly 27% of tokenized equity market capitalization. Notably, most of the trading happens while the market is shut. Across July, closed U.S. market hours accounted for 62% of bStocks volume on Binance, and 58% since inception. Roughly $1.5B in value changed hands on Binance while the NYSE was closed.

The volume numbers only show there’s demand for exposure when the underlying market is shut. While impressive, a market can be both busy and still be mispricing assets. 

Thus, arguably a bigger question is whether the price our bStocks users are trading at holds up once the underlying market reopens. To test it, we compared the weekend price to Monday's opening price. If the bStocks market has genuinely worked out where an asset’s price belongs, the two should line up. If it's just noise, they won't. 

What the Monday Open Shows

We took where bStocks settled over the weekend, compared it to where the underlying opened Monday, and measured how much of the gap the weekend price had already anticipated. 

Figure 1: Share of the Monday price gap reflected in bStocks prices over the weekend. Source: Binance Research, as of July 28.

Over a window of seven weekends, from June 12 to July 27, the on-chain price captured a median 92% of the Monday gap, leaving a median residual of 0.19% at the reopen – meaning the underlying stock price had only a relatively small price difference once traditional markets opened. 

On larger moves – gaps above 3% – all 41 of the 41 observed instances were directionally correct, with the weekend price capturing a median 99.6% of the gap.

Figure 2: Accuracy of bStocks weekend price direction by the size of the Monday opening price gap. Source: Binance Research, as of July 28.

What makes the pattern even harder to dismiss is how accuracy tracks the size of the move. On the smallest weekend moves — under 0.5% — the on-chain price called the direction right about 81% of the time. That rose to roughly 90% on moves of 0.5-1%, and around 97% on moves of 1-3%, before reaching the near-total capture on the largest gaps above.

If the weekend price were just random guessing, one would expect accuracy to jump around with no pattern to it. Instead, the data shows accuracy climbing steadily as the moves get bigger. 

Final Thoughts

The window we measured was only across 7 weekends. It’s short enough that a run of news-driven Sundays could exaggerate the trend. A larger sample will tell us how decisively bStocks weekend pricing is leading intraday moves that Monday later confirms.

The early data appears encouraging for now. In a small sample, with the caveat above in mind, the data points to a market that’s forming a real view of equity pricing while Wall Street sleeps. But of course, as always, do your own research before investing in any products. 

Further Reading

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