【Watch the Tide Web3】
Observe the market’s tides; when the tide rises, it falls again—nothing more than bull-bear cycles;
In the way of trading, greed, anger, and obsession—through the ebb and flow of desire.
Long-termism, value investing, respect for facts, respect for logic, embrace uncertainty!
▍Since this year, the most obvious and important change in the crypto market is:
Daily volatility is getting smaller and smaller, while the truly big moves are becoming more and more concentrated.
$ETH Dropped from more than 3000 to 1500, then rebounded from 1500 back to 1900. The trend is significant, but on most trading days there’s almost no movement.
What really determines direction is often the last one or two crucial hours: before the weekly close, before the 5-day moving average switches, and before the 3-day line ends. The market can go sideways for days ahead of time, but in the end it suddenly spikes up or suddenly dumps.
What does this mean for retail investors?
You have no idea when it will move or which direction it will move.
Either chase the rally, or sell into a drop. That’s exactly the rhythm the main players love most.
So now people still open leveraged contracts every day, constantly go long and short, and claim they can make stable profits—basically, that’s nonsense, and it’s all losses.
With the market staying stuck like this for the long term, and then completing a directional move in one or two hours—what do you have to compete with institutions, ETFs, and quantitative machines?
But from another angle, spot is actually much more comfortable.
ETH can grind you for days with price swings of just a few dollars—or even a few dimes—but the big trend has already moved from 1500 to 1900.
So my principle is getting simpler and simpler: in today’s coin market, it’s mainly about spot.
Most of the time you don’t even need to stare at the charts; checking once a day is enough. This kind of day-to-day fluctuation right now is even less than what many stocks experience.
Fewer trades, hold the trend—that’s the best approach for ordinary investors right now.
▍It’s really been a long time! From February until now, the market has given us 6 months to place our bets. It also makes me think of March to October 2024—exactly the same kind of struggle, and the same kind of need to endure and stay patient.
But one thing at one time, another thing at another time: back then it was a bull market; now it’s a bear market.
In a bull market, power builds upward—who knows whether now it’s building downward? Isn’t there an old saying: “If it goes sideways long enough, it must fall”?
Isn’t there an old saying: “If it goes sideways long enough, it must fall”?
But no matter what, I still have firm confidence in the outlook!
Over these past 6 months, BTC has been weaving back and forth around a single line:
10y Realized Price —— a reference line obtained by excluding, from the cost basis, the amount of tokens held idle for more than 10 years, resulting in a measure that is closer to the market’s average cost.
As shown in the figure: over the past three cycles, it’s been a powerful resistance, but in this round it has become support—can you accept that?
I’ve been wondering—could this be a kind of market language?
In its own way, it tests whether we can understand it and whether we have patience.
“The seller gave up the idea when it was below average cost; the buyer saw an opportunity when it was below average cost.” If supply and demand hadn’t reached balance, how could it have lasted this long?
As the saying goes—well, as the saying goes!
How long it is horizontally and how high it is vertically—when the chips change hands thoroughly again, and with hopes for the next bull market, may this be the foundation for bringing us surprises.
[Note] To prevent people who lack a sense of humor or the ability to understand from getting confused, here’s an explanation of the analysis above:
“In a bull market, power builds upward—who knows whether now it’s building downward? Isn’t there an old saying: ‘If it goes sideways long enough, it must fall’?” That line is clearly my humorous, playful way of talking. Taken together with the context, it shouldn’t be hard to understand. And if I truly believed that “going sideways will definitely lead to a steep drop,” then I wouldn’t need to cite the data from 10y Realized Price becoming a support line in this cycle, emphasizing that the market is gradually forming a balance between supply and demand.