Tonight at 20:30, the U.S. will release both the July nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate data simultaneously. As the most important employment reference for the Federal Reserve’s September policy meeting, the market is highly focused.
Key data preview:
Nonfarm payrolls: prior value 57,000; forecast 80,000.
Unemployment rate: prior value 4.20%; forecast 4.2%.
$ETH
Market projections under three data scenarios:
First, data far exceeds expectations (nonfarm payrolls above 80,000, unemployment rate less than or equal to 4.2%): bullish for the U.S. dollar; gold and non-U.S. currencies under pressure; market expectations for rate cuts will cool.
Second, data meets expectations (nonfarm payrolls in the range of 60,000–80,000, unemployment rate at 4.2%): the market will most likely see sharp choppy swings and short-term price action will lack a clear directional bias.
Third, an unexpected downside surprise (nonfarm payrolls below 57,000, or unemployment rate rises to 4.3%): bearish for the U.S. dollar; safe-haven asset gold will receive a boost, while Federal Reserve rate-cut expectations are strengthened.
$BTC
Trading note:
Ten minutes before the data release, it’s recommended to stay out of the market and observe, to avoid the “needle” risk caused by liquidity drying up. In addition to watching the number of new jobs, it’s also advisable to pay attention to the average hourly earnings data, as its performance will similarly have an important impact on subsequent inflation and the policy path. Wishing everyone a smooth trade tonight #非农就业数据
Key data preview:
Nonfarm payrolls: prior value 57,000; forecast 80,000.
Unemployment rate: prior value 4.20%; forecast 4.2%.
$ETH
Market projections under three data scenarios:
First, data far exceeds expectations (nonfarm payrolls above 80,000, unemployment rate less than or equal to 4.2%): bullish for the U.S. dollar; gold and non-U.S. currencies under pressure; market expectations for rate cuts will cool.
Second, data meets expectations (nonfarm payrolls in the range of 60,000–80,000, unemployment rate at 4.2%): the market will most likely see sharp choppy swings and short-term price action will lack a clear directional bias.
Third, an unexpected downside surprise (nonfarm payrolls below 57,000, or unemployment rate rises to 4.3%): bearish for the U.S. dollar; safe-haven asset gold will receive a boost, while Federal Reserve rate-cut expectations are strengthened.
$BTC
Trading note:
Ten minutes before the data release, it’s recommended to stay out of the market and observe, to avoid the “needle” risk caused by liquidity drying up. In addition to watching the number of new jobs, it’s also advisable to pay attention to the average hourly earnings data, as its performance will similarly have an important impact on subsequent inflation and the policy path. Wishing everyone a smooth trade tonight #非农就业数据