#非农数据揭晓

Current BTC price: 64344 USDT. Analysis: 10:34 on Aug 07

Hey team, this BTC is still dragging its feet around 64,400, making people so sleepy. The price keeps moving up and down along the 1-hour EMA55 (64427.81), with only a 0.13% distance—classic on-line fluctuation. Don’t rush; let’s first dig into the data to see what’s really going on here.

Multi-timeframe technical background
On the daily and 4-hour timeframes, the structure is still bullish. The 4-hour MACD has just crossed over to bearish, but the DIF is still above the zero line. However, the 1-hour timeframe is a bit awkward: the price is below the EMA55. The MACD histogram is green (-33.66), but the green bars are shrinking, and RSI at 46.94 is also somewhat weak. The 15-minute timeframe shows signs of stabilizing: the MACD histogram turns positive. Overall: the bigger trend hasn’t broken, but the smaller timeframe is stuck in indecision—an eerie calm before the storm.

Key price levels
For upward pressure, first look at the 1-hour EMA55 at 64428. Only after it holds can you consider 64590 (1-hour MA30) and 64999 (24-hour high). For downside support, look at 64172 (24-hour low). If it breaks, then it will need to find support at 63900 (daily MA10). This range is only 800 dollars—quite narrow.

Capital and sentiment
The Fear & Greed Index is 29, still in the fear zone, indicating insufficient market confidence. Trading volume is 9686 BTC—not very active; everyone is waiting for Non-Farm Payrolls. The news is mixed: the rebound in the Korea/Japan stock markets is a positive, but the probability of a September rate hike by the Federal Reserve has risen to 56.5%, weighing on risk assets. Grayscale selling of XRP adds another layer of blockage. Overall sentiment is cautious—everyone is waiting to see direction.

Trading idea
Based on the TPV system: In the past 8 one-hour candlesticks, the close price was above EMA55 a total of 3/8 times. There was only 1 crossover, which does not meet the consolidation threshold (3~5 times and crossover ≥ 2 times). However, the price is only 0.13% away from EMA55, meaning it’s a near-line fluctuation and the probability of consolidation increases. So currently it does not satisfy the long conditions (requires 2 consecutive candlesticks closing and holding above EMA55), nor does it satisfy the short conditions (requires 2 consecutive candlesticks closing and pressing below EMA55). Conclusion: Mainly stay on the sidelines. For aggressive friends, you can do high-sell low-buy within the 64172–64999 range, enter and exit quickly with a light position size, and place the stop-loss outside the range boundaries.

Qinglan’s personal view
Honestly, I dislike this kind of market the most—both bulls and bears feel uncomfortable. Before the Non-Farm data comes out, BTC will most likely chop back and forth within this range. My advice is to hold back—don’t get itchy to trade. Wait until the price clearly holds above or breaks below the EMA55, with confirmation from 2 consecutive candlesticks, before entering. Remember: there’s always a market every day, and the most precious thing is your principal. We can afford to wait!

Bitcoin market analysis #BTC #TPV trading system

⚡️ The above is based on Qinglan’s TPV trading system market analysis. For precise entry points, take-profit and stop-loss, please check Qinglan’s crypto class: https://www.qinglan.org/ to get dynamic tracking and full-cycle analysis.


📊 Qinglan TPV trading strategy backtest reference
🕒 Final backtest time: 08-07 07:00:01
Overall analysis: 3424 | Backtest: 3419 | Accuracy: 81.7% (2792/3419)