#美国初请失业金人数维持20万以下
In the U.S., initial jobless claims have remained below 200,000 for several consecutive weeks. The labor market has shown strong resilience—there has been no large-scale wave of layoffs. The four-week moving average has fallen to a low level not seen since September 2022. This data directly undercuts the market’s prior hopes for a rapid rate cut. The market has repriced the outlook to “higher rates for longer.” U.S. Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar index both strengthened in tandem, putting near-term pressure on global risk assets.
Economic resilience is a double-edged sword: strong employment signals that the U.S. economy is not facing imminent recession risk, but it also means the Federal Reserve lacks an urgent incentive to flood the system with liquidity. For the crypto market, high-beta assets like BTC and ETH will face near-term pressure from tighter liquidity expectations. As a result, price action is more likely to grind through a range-bound “chop and base” consolidation, and volatility in smaller coins may be further amplified.
However, there’s no need to be overly pessimistic. Hot jobs do not automatically mean immediate rate hikes. Inflation data remains the core yardstick for the Fed’s decisions. Next, the focus should be on the Non-Farm Payrolls report and inflation indicators—these are the true inflection points for the market. We are currently in a window dominated by macro data cross-currents, which is not suitable for taking a heavy directional bet on a one-way trend. Priority should be given to defending key support and resistance levels, managing overall position size, and waiting for new catalyst signals to materialize.
Risk warning: The views above are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.
In the U.S., initial jobless claims have remained below 200,000 for several consecutive weeks. The labor market has shown strong resilience—there has been no large-scale wave of layoffs. The four-week moving average has fallen to a low level not seen since September 2022. This data directly undercuts the market’s prior hopes for a rapid rate cut. The market has repriced the outlook to “higher rates for longer.” U.S. Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar index both strengthened in tandem, putting near-term pressure on global risk assets.
Economic resilience is a double-edged sword: strong employment signals that the U.S. economy is not facing imminent recession risk, but it also means the Federal Reserve lacks an urgent incentive to flood the system with liquidity. For the crypto market, high-beta assets like BTC and ETH will face near-term pressure from tighter liquidity expectations. As a result, price action is more likely to grind through a range-bound “chop and base” consolidation, and volatility in smaller coins may be further amplified.
However, there’s no need to be overly pessimistic. Hot jobs do not automatically mean immediate rate hikes. Inflation data remains the core yardstick for the Fed’s decisions. Next, the focus should be on the Non-Farm Payrolls report and inflation indicators—these are the true inflection points for the market. We are currently in a window dominated by macro data cross-currents, which is not suitable for taking a heavy directional bet on a one-way trend. Priority should be given to defending key support and resistance levels, managing overall position size, and waiting for new catalyst signals to materialize.
Risk warning: The views above are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.