—— Personal opinion, for reference only ——
1. Current market status: A fragile balance under high-level fluctuations
This week started with the market showing a pattern of high-level fluctuations. With short-term favorable external conditions (such as easing geopolitical tensions), market sentiment has slightly improved. However, it is essential to recognize that the current funding situation has not formed a solid support — retail investors have limited ammunition, and institutional holdings are diverging. The so-called 'bull return' is more of a technical rebound rather than a trend reversal.
I personally believe that this week it is possible to gradually position in the spot market at lower prices, but the position should be controlled within 50%, and the stop-loss line should be clearly set around 114300. If it falls below that, exit decisively and observe, without betting on direction.
2. Overall trend in 2026: survival logic under hell mode.
The market environment may further deteriorate next year:
Macroeconomic uncertainty is increasing: the pace of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve is questionable, the trend of tightening global liquidity remains unchanged, the correlation between Bitcoin and the Nasdaq index has strengthened, and fluctuations in traditional finance will directly transmit to the crypto market.
Industry differentiation: While trends such as mines transforming into AI data centers and asset tokenization bring new narratives, it is difficult to support large-scale capital entry in the short term.
Retail investors are struggling: the era of infinite bullets has ended, and under the game of existing funds, the win rate of going solo has significantly decreased.
Response strategy:
Huddling for warmth: focus on compliant platforms, prediction markets, RWA (real-world assets), and other tracks with actual cash flow.
Tools replacing humans: AI quantitative strategies far exceed manual trading in risk control and execution efficiency, and consideration can be given to configuring term arbitrage or low-volatility strategy products.
3. Year-end market prediction: sprint or trap?
In the short term, the sharp drop in October has cleared a large amount of leverage, allowing the market to start fresh, and there may be room for a technical rebound. However, I remain cautious about the year-end market.
If a sharp rise occurs before mid-December, it may signal a temporary peak.
Reason: Institutional funds tend to take profits at the end of the year, coupled with regulatory uncertainties (such as the advancement of U.S. cryptocurrency tax laws), which can easily lead to liquidity exhaustion.
Suggestion: If there is a rebound near the previous high, gradually reduce positions and keep cash to wait for clearer entry opportunities next year.
4. The way out for traders: either specialize or be eliminated.
Abandon the Holy Grail mentality: the success rate of manual trading has significantly decreased in the current market. Instead of risking it, it's better to use tools. For example, AI quantitative systems can capture short-term opportunities through data mining and nonlinear strategies, reducing emotional interference.
Transforming into a 'stacking player': earning stable income through community, platform, or infrastructure services (such as prediction markets, staking services, etc.), moving away from pure speculative betting.
5. Individual response: Are pessimists correct while optimists make money?
I always adhere to the principle of 'risk first': do not enter with credit cards or online loans, only use idle money to participate. At the current point, the safest way is to use dollar-cost averaging plus quantitative arbitrage, avoiding missing out while withstanding volatility.
If there really is a 'last shudder' at the end of the year, remember: surviving is victory. Livermore's tragedy lies not in the wrong direction but in excessive exposure to risk.
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