January has been eventful for Bitcoin — the exchange rate is noticeably fluctuating against the backdrop of new geopolitical tensions between the USA and the EU following Donald Trump's recent statement on tariffs.
In a day, the largest cryptocurrency has decreased by almost 2.5% — to $92 663. Analysts are recording signals indicating a possible bearish scenario as early as 2026.
1. Bearish reversal Kumo
In a recent publication on X, the Titan of Crypto analyst pointed out the emergence of the so-called "Kumo twist" on the weekly Bitcoin chart. Kumo twist is a reversal figure in the Ichimoku indicator, where the leading lines of the cloud (Senkou Span A and Senkou Span B) intersect, resulting in the cloud changing direction in the future.
Depending on the direction of the crossover, such a signal may indicate a change from a bullish trend to a bearish one or vice versa. Currently, a bearish reversal has been recorded on the Bitcoin chart.
In past market cycles, Titan of Crypto noted that similar reversals on the weekly Ichimoku cloud preceded significant corrections — at that time, Bitcoin lost about 67–70% in value.
"Previously, when the weekly cloud entered the bearish zone, Bitcoin transitioned to a bear market phase. This does not foreshadow a sharp decline — it simply changes the market structure and trend direction. This is context, not a forecast. The judgment is based on the last three cycles," noted the analyst.
2. Bitcoin is holding below important resistance levels
Currently, Bitcoin is trading below its 365-day moving average, which is around $101,000. This value served as an important barrier during the bear market of 2022 and prevented the price from recovering.
Coin Bureau notes: as long as Bitcoin remains below this moving average, the market is under the pressure of bearish sentiment.
Additional technical analysis using a Gaussian channel on a five-day timeframe only increases caution. Analyst Raven noted that Bitcoin has again found itself below the median of the channel.
He also added that losing this level with a subsequent failed retest in the past has become a signal for a new round of strong market decline.
"I believe we are headed towards the $103,000 zone for a retest or possibly a bit higher — for the sake of liquidity gathering. If we can confidently recover above the median and hold support, I will inform you. Until then, any recovery is just a dead cat bounce," concluded the expert.
The history of Bitcoin's price movement shows a recurring pattern of deep drawdowns following peak cycle values. After the peak in 2013, Bitcoin lost approximately 75.9%, after the 2017 peak the drop was 81.2%, and after the maximum in 2021 — about 74%.
In this cycle, the correction has been much more modest — the losses barely exceeded 30%. Compared to previous cycles, the correction looks insignificant, which indicates a possible continuation of the decline as the situation develops.
Analyzing corrections after local peaks helps understand price behavior, but a broader view of the market cycle shows what the current conditions correspond to.
The index of bullish and bearish cycles, which tracks market phases, indicates the beginning of a bearish stage since October 2025. However, the indicator has not yet entered the zone of extreme bearish sentiment.
"If you look at this indicator, Bitcoin is already in a bear market phase. In each of the past cycles, we delved into the dark blue zone — meaning the correction may continue. But please continue to wait for growth — someone has to become the liquidity for an exit," noted the analyst at X.
On-chain analytics data shows — more Bitcoins are flowing to exchanges. The majority of the volume is transferred by medium and large holders, especially in the range of 10–100 BTC and 100–1,000 BTC.
An increase in Bitcoin transfers to exchanges typically indicates enhanced distribution rather than long-term accumulation. Market participants are preparing assets for potential sales.
"Transactions of large holders provide more information about market sentiment than fragmented actions of retail investors — such transfers reflect strategic decisions, not noise. At the macro level, the combination of increased inflows to exchanges and distributions by large players may indicate heightened market vulnerability," noted the analyst from CryptoQuant.
Overall, Bitcoin is showing a number of signs of a bear market, which are visible through technical, historical, and on-chain indicators. However, it is still unclear whether it will repeat previous negative scenarios or unexpectedly strengthen its position.
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