In a call with analysts, Elon Musk said SpaceX expects to achieve annual revenue of $1 trillion by 2030. This is one year earlier than the internal target timeline (2031) presented at the time of its June listing.
Key points
Musk moved the internal milestone of $1 trillion in annual revenue from 2031 to 2030, adding that the possibility of achieving it in 2029 is “not completely out of the question.”
Second-quarter revenue rose 92% year over year to $7.81 billion, significantly exceeding consensus (about $6.9 billion).
Quarterly equipment investment totaled $18.4 billion, of which $15.8 billion was allocated to the AI segment, and after the earnings release, the stock price fell about 14% on Wednesday.
The company said that second-quarter revenue was tallied at $7.81 billion based on the filing standard. This represents a 92% increase from the same period a year earlier, significantly surpassing the roughly $6.9 billion Wall Street had expected. Net loss narrowed substantially from $1.01 billion in the 2025 same period to $541 million.
Adjusted EBITDA jumped 191% to $3.5 billion, also easily exceeding what Wall Street had expected for the quarter.
In the earnings call held for the first time since the IPO in June, Musk drew a line by saying the $1 trillion outlook was an “internal estimate, not official guidance,” while also bringing the schedule forward compared with the original plan. In an interview, he explained to investors that there is a “non-zero probability” of achieving the goal in 2029, and that the company could reach an annual recurring revenue run rate of $100 billion by this coming December.
Capital expenditures (CAPEX) also surged. Quarterly equipment investment jumped to $18.4 billion, more than six times the level from a year earlier.
Of that, about $15.8 billion was allocated to the AI segment. This exceeds the $13.22 billion analysts had expected. Just hours before the earnings release, the company disclosed a partnership with **Nvidia** to jointly develop the compute payload that will be installed on its future ‘Starmind’ satellites through the presentation. Even so, SpaceX’s stock fell about 14% on Wednesday.
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Musk’s $1 trillion blueprint: a mismatch with Wall Street expectations
Wall Street consensus is far more conservative than Musk’s rosy scenario. According to FactSet, SpaceX’s 2029 revenue estimate is about $207 billion—roughly one-fifth of the $1 trillion Musk presented.
Even so, multiple securities firms raised their target stock prices one after another after the earnings announcement. The analysis is that they viewed positively the fact that the AI segment returned to profitability on an adjusted EBITDA basis earlier than the schedule the company had previously laid out before going public.
**GraniteShares** CEO **Will Rhind** said in a comment that this week’s stock adjustment is more related to the release of insider protection and escrow beginning on Thursday than to the earnings themselves. Before the IPO, investors would be able to sell about one-fifth of restricted shares into the market even while trading below the offering price.
Starlink and SpaceX results: the driving force
**Starlink** led the results with the highest growth rate among all business segments. Starlink revenue rose 66% year over year to $4.29 billion, and for now it remains the only business within SpaceX that generates operating profit. The number of subscribers increased from 6 million to 12 million, doubling.
However, average revenue per user (ARPU) dropped from $85 a year earlier to $66. Musk said in response that “the market still underestimates the network’s potential,” urging investors to maintain patience from a long-term perspective.
SpaceX went public on June 12 at $135 per share, achieving the largest initial public offering in U.S. market history. The stock started trading at around $150 in the early session and surpassed $200 within weeks, but later gave back all of its gains. On Tuesday, the closing price was $125.33—below the offering price. The company said it held $93.5 billion in cash as of the end of the quarter, and $36.8 billion in debt and financial leases.
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