Are the large holders moving coins like crazy—does this really mean a big sell-off and a sharp drop? $LTH.US
Let’s talk about how the chips held by long-term holders have changed over the past two days. A few days ago, there was a massive movement of chips, and many retail investors panicked, thinking that the big holders were planning to dump them all and crash the market. I’ve been watching for two days, and the actual situation is a bit different from what everyone imagined.
First, the scale of chip transfers is already declining. From July 31 to August 1, the chip transfer volume surged to 65,000 units, reaching peak heat. But by August 3–4, it had dropped to 38,000 units. Although it’s still higher than the usual daily level of 10,000–15,000, there’s clearly no continued escalation in the amount being moved.
Second, although a large amount of chips has been moved, the number being sent to exchanges has not spiked. That means most of these chips are merely being moved to different wallets for storage, not immediately prepared to be sold for cash. In the short term, this shouldn’t create massive selling pressure. The rumor that big holders are collectively fleeing doesn’t hold up. This large-scale relocation is very likely related to a sudden incident like the coldcard security vulnerability.
Third, smaller amounts of abnormal movement can be driven by micro-strategy-related news. The market has circulated that they’re considering raising the sell-coin limit to $5 billion. Many retail investors treat this institution as a benchmark for market direction, which may indirectly prompt a small portion of old holders to adjust their positions along the same lines.
Overall, based on current on-chain data, the potential sell pressure created by inflows to exchanges can still be absorbed by the market—for now, the current market balance hasn’t been broken. However, risk can build up little by little. We’re still waiting for an external trigger that would truly stir up the order book and the price action.
For now, we still can’t fully relax. The risk is only temporarily not erupting. Going forward, I’ll keep a close watch on on-chain anomalies, organize my thoughts on the key levels for short-term trading, and if there are any new developments, I’ll update everyone right away. #美ADP7月私营就业逊预期 #黄金突破下行趋势线 #纽约黄金期货涨3.74% #SK海力士三星拖累韩股下挫
Let’s talk about how the chips held by long-term holders have changed over the past two days. A few days ago, there was a massive movement of chips, and many retail investors panicked, thinking that the big holders were planning to dump them all and crash the market. I’ve been watching for two days, and the actual situation is a bit different from what everyone imagined.
First, the scale of chip transfers is already declining. From July 31 to August 1, the chip transfer volume surged to 65,000 units, reaching peak heat. But by August 3–4, it had dropped to 38,000 units. Although it’s still higher than the usual daily level of 10,000–15,000, there’s clearly no continued escalation in the amount being moved.
Second, although a large amount of chips has been moved, the number being sent to exchanges has not spiked. That means most of these chips are merely being moved to different wallets for storage, not immediately prepared to be sold for cash. In the short term, this shouldn’t create massive selling pressure. The rumor that big holders are collectively fleeing doesn’t hold up. This large-scale relocation is very likely related to a sudden incident like the coldcard security vulnerability.
Third, smaller amounts of abnormal movement can be driven by micro-strategy-related news. The market has circulated that they’re considering raising the sell-coin limit to $5 billion. Many retail investors treat this institution as a benchmark for market direction, which may indirectly prompt a small portion of old holders to adjust their positions along the same lines.
Overall, based on current on-chain data, the potential sell pressure created by inflows to exchanges can still be absorbed by the market—for now, the current market balance hasn’t been broken. However, risk can build up little by little. We’re still waiting for an external trigger that would truly stir up the order book and the price action.
For now, we still can’t fully relax. The risk is only temporarily not erupting. Going forward, I’ll keep a close watch on on-chain anomalies, organize my thoughts on the key levels for short-term trading, and if there are any new developments, I’ll update everyone right away. #美ADP7月私营就业逊预期 #黄金突破下行趋势线 #纽约黄金期货涨3.74% #SK海力士三星拖累韩股下挫
利空彻底出清，开启反弹修复行情
高位震荡反复磨盘，等待新消息催化
存储板块集体走弱，继续向下回调
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