Polymarket traders assign an 18% chance that Tesla and SpaceX will officially announce a merger before end-2026, with near-term odds for a Sept. 30 announcement at about 5%. The December 31 contract trades around 18 cents and activity across the relevant contracts has topped $1 million, according to BeInCrypto, even as speculation persists over Elon Musk’s firms and SpaceX shares fell after its first public earnings report.