The available information suggests that whether COAI (ChainOpera AI) can 'rise back' in the future depends on three things: chip structure, emotional cycles, and whether it can evolve from 'MEME narrative' to a 'usable ecosystem'. Here's the key information broken down for you:
1. Chips are extremely concentrated, and prices can easily be influenced by 'whales'.
The top 10 addresses once controlled over 96% of the circulation, while the top 100 addresses accounted for 99.7%. With this structure, just a few wallets synchronizing sales can instantly drop the price from 0.4 USD to 0.1; conversely, if whales lock up their assets and positive news aligns, it's not surprising for the price to rise to 5-6 USD in the short term. The problem is: retail investors always react too late, leading to high volatility risk.
2. The emotional cycle has passed the 'first wave', currently in the 'cooling + high leverage' stage.
- The violent surge of 1800% in October was mainly driven by the dual emotions of 'BNB chain MEME season + Binance Alpha launch'.
- The current long-short ratio is 0.41, and the funding rate is above 0.35%, indicating that bulls are still paying high prices to 'bet on a rise', but the concentration of positions makes it difficult for bears to operate; once sentiment reverses, the speed of long liquidation will be very fast.
- At the beginning of January, WEEX's forecast range for the entire year of 2026 is only 0.47-0.52 USD, implying a rise of about 5%. It can be seen that mainstream platforms have downgraded 'high volatility' to 'low expectations'.
3. The upgrade of narrative is key to whether it can return to double digits.
If the project team wants to shake off the 'pure MEME' label, they can only create practical scenarios for AI + blockchain: SDK calls, model inference consuming COAI, collaborating with the BNB ecosystem officially, etc. Currently, the cooperation that can be found is still at the 'negotiation' and 'planning' level, with no public daily active/user payment data. If there are still no real consumption scenarios in the next 3-6 months, and the popularity of the BNB chain is diverted by Binance's new 'Meme Rush' platform, then the historical high of 20 USD is likely to be a 'once in a lifetime' opportunity.
4. Technical reference (purely market-based, excluding fundamentals)
- Upper resistance levels: 5.0 USD, 6.67 USD, 10 USD;
- Strong support below: 0.35-0.40 USD (current range), 0.20 USD (previous launch platform);
- The daily RSI has left the overbought zone, and the stochastic RSI has formed a golden cross, indicating there is room for a short-term rebound. However, the Bollinger Bands are narrowing, and the ADX is turning down, showing a decline in the momentum of the larger trend.
Conclusion (not investment advice, just information summary)
A. Short-term (1-4 weeks): Concentrated chips + high leverage could quickly pulse to 1-2 USD based on news, but the margin for error is extremely low, and stop-loss must be set in advance.
B. Medium-term (1-3 months): Whether it can break through 5 USD and rise above 10 USD depends on whether the project team can announce milestones of 'real users + real consumption'; otherwise, each pump may be whale unloading.
C. Long-term (over 6 months): If the ecosystem remains at 'concept + MEME', 0.4 USD is not the bottom; if the AI module is widely called by dApps, and Binance provides more traffic entry points, there is a possibility of returning to 10-20 USD, but the probability is < 20% (based on current public progress).
In short: COAI is not a value coin that 'will rebound after a significant drop', but a high-volatility gambling tool driven by 'emotion + chips'. If you cannot track whale addresses and funding rate changes in real-time, it's best to participate only with positions you can afford to lose and set stop-loss and take-profit limits.
