$ETH got knocked back again after surging to 1898. Long upper wicks. This is already the third time.
On August 1, that 4-hour candle—the low was smashed down to 1820, with a trading volume of 1.02 million ETH. All the panic orders came out. The next day it was pulled up to 1885, volume 660k ETH. Bulls and bears kept strangling each other in this zone repeatedly, and nobody retreats.
First, look at the order-book signals. In the last 24 hours, it’s up 0.65%, current price 1866. It doesn’t look like it’s really down, but in fact the high is being pushed down from 1881, while the low is being lifted from 1820—converging triangle, and it’s close to ending. 24-hour trading value is $5.1 billion, not that big. The market is waiting for direction and isn’t in a rush.
On sentiment: the funding rate is 0.0019%, extremely low. Neither bulls nor bears are willing to pay to place bets. Mark price 1866.87 is almost the same as the spot price, meaning futures are very tightly aligned with spot—no obvious premium forcing a short squeeze. At times like this, the market isn’t “cool,” it’s tense. It stays tense until a certain level—then everything comes out at once.
About the big players: I noticed something—when the drop came at 1820, the 1.02 million ETH volume was the largest of the whole cycle. But price didn’t collapse; within two days it was pulled back above 1880. That suggests someone was catching bids underneath, not retail—retail can’t absorb that kind of volume. The problem is that the sell pressure from 1880 to 1898 is also heavy, and the big players are distributing too. Both sides are acting—price is being squeezed and pushed around in the middle.
Volume-price structure: from 1850 to 1887, that 4-hour candle had 469k ETH volume. After that, every rebound has failed to keep pace with volume. The 530k candle at 1881 was already the biggest in the recent period. Volume-supported upside like that isn’t a healthy way. During the selloff it was the opposite—volume expanded: from 1843 to 1838 there were 810k ETH. Funds are more inclined to enter during the decline rather than chase.
Candlestick details: the most recent 6 four-hour candles—3 of them have long upper wicks all pointing to the 1880–1881 area. Their highs are 1880.95, 1881.72, and 1877.45. Every time price hits this spot, someone gets aggressive and sells. Support for the short term is 1852–1851; if that breaks, then look at 1847. The current structure is sideways consolidation at high levels: attempts to push up lack strength, but the downside has support underneath. It’s a classic standoff between bulls and bears.
ETH as the leading public-chain has no ecosystem issues. But on the capital side, there isn’t incremental money willing to take positions above 1880. In a battle where only existing liquidity is fighting, if it drags on for long, it’s usually not good. Bullish confidence is being consumed little by little.
Nini’s plan: slightly bearish. Reduce positions in batches above 1880, and cut losses if it breaks 1852. If price drops and tags near 1838, you can take a small long position to bet on a rebound. Current price is 1866—neither up nor down; it’s not a good entry spot. Wait.
#$ETH #Layer1 #DeFi
On August 1, that 4-hour candle—the low was smashed down to 1820, with a trading volume of 1.02 million ETH. All the panic orders came out. The next day it was pulled up to 1885, volume 660k ETH. Bulls and bears kept strangling each other in this zone repeatedly, and nobody retreats.
First, look at the order-book signals. In the last 24 hours, it’s up 0.65%, current price 1866. It doesn’t look like it’s really down, but in fact the high is being pushed down from 1881, while the low is being lifted from 1820—converging triangle, and it’s close to ending. 24-hour trading value is $5.1 billion, not that big. The market is waiting for direction and isn’t in a rush.
On sentiment: the funding rate is 0.0019%, extremely low. Neither bulls nor bears are willing to pay to place bets. Mark price 1866.87 is almost the same as the spot price, meaning futures are very tightly aligned with spot—no obvious premium forcing a short squeeze. At times like this, the market isn’t “cool,” it’s tense. It stays tense until a certain level—then everything comes out at once.
About the big players: I noticed something—when the drop came at 1820, the 1.02 million ETH volume was the largest of the whole cycle. But price didn’t collapse; within two days it was pulled back above 1880. That suggests someone was catching bids underneath, not retail—retail can’t absorb that kind of volume. The problem is that the sell pressure from 1880 to 1898 is also heavy, and the big players are distributing too. Both sides are acting—price is being squeezed and pushed around in the middle.
Volume-price structure: from 1850 to 1887, that 4-hour candle had 469k ETH volume. After that, every rebound has failed to keep pace with volume. The 530k candle at 1881 was already the biggest in the recent period. Volume-supported upside like that isn’t a healthy way. During the selloff it was the opposite—volume expanded: from 1843 to 1838 there were 810k ETH. Funds are more inclined to enter during the decline rather than chase.
Candlestick details: the most recent 6 four-hour candles—3 of them have long upper wicks all pointing to the 1880–1881 area. Their highs are 1880.95, 1881.72, and 1877.45. Every time price hits this spot, someone gets aggressive and sells. Support for the short term is 1852–1851; if that breaks, then look at 1847. The current structure is sideways consolidation at high levels: attempts to push up lack strength, but the downside has support underneath. It’s a classic standoff between bulls and bears.
ETH as the leading public-chain has no ecosystem issues. But on the capital side, there isn’t incremental money willing to take positions above 1880. In a battle where only existing liquidity is fighting, if it drags on for long, it’s usually not good. Bullish confidence is being consumed little by little.
Nini’s plan: slightly bearish. Reduce positions in batches above 1880, and cut losses if it breaks 1852. If price drops and tags near 1838, you can take a small long position to bet on a rebound. Current price is 1866—neither up nor down; it’s not a good entry spot. Wait.
#$ETH #Layer1 #DeFi