Two important things this week: one is the clear bill, and the other is the nonfarm payrolls. Bill: the probability that the first bill will pass now—Polymarket’s predicted probability is about 31%-33%, while JPMorgan expects 37%. If it can pass, then it’s “see you above 70,000.” But the market also expects that it won’t be able to pass before the recess.
Nonfarm payrolls: On the 30th, the FOMC meeting will keep rates unchanged for the fifth consecutive time. There is no FOMC meeting in August, so the next decision will be on September 15–16. So the 7th is the first piece of the September meeting puzzle, followed by the 12th CPI and the 26th PCE.
At present, interest-rate futures show a September rate-hike probability of about 64%-68%. The nonfarm data will directly determine whether this probability surges toward 80% or falls back to below 50%.
We’ve already hit the bottom—however it moves, it’s up.
#比特币收复6.4万美元关口 #清晰法案
Nonfarm payrolls: On the 30th, the FOMC meeting will keep rates unchanged for the fifth consecutive time. There is no FOMC meeting in August, so the next decision will be on September 15–16. So the 7th is the first piece of the September meeting puzzle, followed by the 12th CPI and the 26th PCE.
At present, interest-rate futures show a September rate-hike probability of about 64%-68%. The nonfarm data will directly determine whether this probability surges toward 80% or falls back to below 50%.
We’ve already hit the bottom—however it moves, it’s up.
#比特币收复6.4万美元关口 #清晰法案