橙子Joyce

On August 4, Anthropic signed a $100 billion computing services agreement with AI cloud startup Volta Infra Holdings.

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August 3, former Federal Reserve economist: Economic data may be distorted, and the Fed could misjudge the situation

Former Federal Reserve economist and Sahm Rule originator Claudia Sahm said that if the Fed ignores基层 economic signals for a long time, it may misjudge economic conditions due to distorted macroeconomic data.

Sahm noted that the “resilience” shown in current U.S. consumer data is not driven by growth in household wealth. Instead, it comes more from households taking on more debt and lowering their consumption standards to maintain their way of life. The Fed’s latest Beige Book shows that in nearly half of the regions, Federal Reserve observers have found that consumers are paying for day-to-day expenses through credit cards, small loans, and other forms of credit.

At the same time,基层 consumption pressure continues to build. In some areas, consumers have reduced spending on higher-priced food due to high prices, and food-assistance demand faced by charities has even exceeded levels seen during the financial crisis and the pandemic.

In the job market, Sahm said there is a gap between the official low unemployment-rate data and workers’ actual experiences. Fed interviews show that some workers describe the current employment environment as “survival” rather than “stability.” Due to concerns about economic uncertainty, workers’ willingness to change jobs has declined, and even when faced with wage stagnation, they choose to stay.

Sahm warned that although基层 economic pressures are intensifying, some businesses have started proactively raising wages as employees’ cost of living increases, which could potentially push inflation risks higher again. She believes that as a data-driven institution, the Fed should not rely only on macro statistical data, but needs to pay attention to ordinary households’ real feelings about prices and employment; otherwise, it may miss important signals of economic changes.

August 3, investment firm Bernstein said that the outlook for the U.S. “Digital Assets Market Clarity Act” (CLARITY Act) is worsening, and if the Senate fails to advance the bill before the recess, it could trigger a short-term negative reaction in the market, further pressuring the valuation of Bitcoin and overall crypto assets.

Bernstein noted that a bill failure could lead to an “instinctive sell-off” in the market, but in the long run it may also prompt the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to accelerate regulatory efforts, including clarifying token classification rules, developing a regulatory framework for decentralized finance (DeFi), and moving forward with token issuance exemption mechanisms.

Bernstein expects the crypto market to bottom out from late Q3 to early Q4 and gradually regain momentum ahead of the U.S. midterm elections.

At present, market expectations that the CLARITY Act will be signed into law by the end of 2026 continue to decline. Data from prediction platform Polymarket shows the probability of passage this year has fallen to 31%, down 7 percentage points from a week ago, down 9 percentage points over the past month, with related bet amounts totaling about $3.7 million.

The CLARITY Act is intended to establish the first U.S. regulatory framework for digital asset markets, but it has faced resistance from the banking industry due to stablecoin yield provisions. Previously, Galaxy Digital reduced its probability of the bill being implemented in 2026 to 50% and warned that the time for the Senate to advance it is running out.

@Dali7613

August 2, market data: Global renowned investor Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway said its Class A and B shares this week rose to a new eight-month high. Analysts noted that although Berkshire’s stock has clearly lagged behind the S&P 500 so far this year, the current rally has sustained momentum. Three of the company’s top holding stocks—Apple, Coca-Cola, and Bank of America—have recorded strong year-to-date gains, providing support for the share price.

Among them, Berkshire’s market value of its stake in its No. 1 holding, Apple, is now over $70 billion, with a year-to-date increase of more than 13%. Its third-largest holding, Coca-Cola, has a stake size of $35 billion, with the stock up 25% year-to-date. Its fourth-largest holding, Bank of America, is up more than 12% year-to-date. An analyst at UBS raised its target price for Berkshire shares and maintained a “Buy” rating, while also increasing its earnings expectations. Market speculation suggests that Berkshire’s stock buyback in Q2 could reach as much as $11 billion; the exact figures will be disclosed in the company’s Q2 earnings report to be released on August 8.

Berkshire Hathaway’s current top 10 holdings (based on the latest publicly available 2026 Q1 13F filing, as of March 31, 2026):
Apple (AAPL): about 22.0% of the portfolio
American Express (AXP): about 17.4%
Coca-Cola (KO): about 11.6%
Bank of America (BAC): about 9.5%
Chevron (CVX): about 6.6%
Occidental Petroleum (OXY): about 6.5%
Alphabet (Google’s parent company, GOOGL/GOOG combined): about 6.3%
CBOE Insurance (CB): about 4.2%
Moody’s (MCO): about 4.1%
Kraft Heinz (KHC): about 2.8%

On August 1, according to Coinglass data, as Bitcoin’s volatility weakened, the current funding rates shown by major CEXs and DEXs indicate that the bearish sentiment in the market has eased. The specific funding rates are shown in the accompanying chart.

Funding rate is a fee set by cryptocurrency trading platforms to maintain balance between the contract price and the price of the underlying asset, usually applied to perpetual contracts. It is a funding exchange mechanism between long and short traders. The trading platform does not collect this fee; instead, it is used to adjust traders’ costs or gains for holding contracts, so that the contract price stays close to the underlying asset price.

When the funding rate is 0.01%, it indicates the benchmark rate. When the funding rate is greater than 0.01%, it generally means the market is bullish. When the funding rate is less than 0.005%, it generally means the market is bearish.

On July 31, three Federal Reserve policymakers said that the no votes against raising rates this week stem from stubborn inflation pressures, showing that the internal pressure faced by Fed Chair Waller is rising. In a statement released Friday morning, Harker and Kashkari said they are concerned that although the current round of price increases may be driven by short-term factors such as President Trump’s tariff policies and the war in Iran, the inflation outlook is now already one that warrants action by the Federal Reserve. Logan also weighed in, saying that even if inflation cools somewhat, it is unlikely to fully fall back to the Fed’s 2% target level unless the Fed raises rates; without any policy restraint, inflation may continue to run above the target until an unforeseen shock occurs.

Kashkari said that if inflation remains stubborn, he may support a series of rate-hike measures rather than just a single hike to prevent inflation from becoming further entrenched. He said, “A series of small policy adjustments may be preferable to waiting for developments, and ultimately having to take more forceful action.” Harker said that if the Fed does not tighten policy, the pace of price increases could continue to accelerate. She said, “Inflation has remained stubbornly above 2% for more than five years, and I don’t have confidence that it will simply fall back to our target level on its own.”