Today’s market action: I’m watching these key things.
1. BTC is still grinding around 63,500—64,000.
Overall, it’s relatively resilient.
On Monday, spot BTC ETFs saw a renewed net inflow of about $170 million—mainly driven by BlackRock’s IBIT buying.
Trading volume isn’t large; the market feels more like it’s waiting and watching rather than panicking and fleeing.
As long as it doesn’t break down with volume through 62,500—63,000, I won’t treat this move as a trend-collapse for now.
2. SpaceX will release its first earnings report tonight.
After the U.S. stock market closes today, it will announce Q2.
More importantly is August 6, when about 911.5 million shares enter their first major unlock window.
So even if tonight’s earnings look great, we still have to see whether the market can absorb the next batch of shares the day after tomorrow.
3. Circle will announce Q2 tomorrow.
Just before the earnings release, Morgan Stanley sharply cut its target price.
Whether the stablecoin story can still support a high valuation is crucial this time—this earnings report will be key.
4. Macro pressure hasn’t gone away.
U.S. Treasury yields are still elevated,
and the risk from carry trades after the coordinated U.S.-Japan intervention in the yen is still being worked through.
There’s also employment data this week.
As for the Coldcard vulnerability, there are currently no new large-scale breakout points, but the risk hasn’t completely passed.
Right now, it’s neither broad panic nor a comfortable one-way bull market.
It’s more like—
BTC is holding,
macro is weighing down,
capital is waiting,
and certain individual events are moving on their own tracks.
In the short term, I’ll keep watching 63K.
Hold it, keep consolidating.
If it really gets volume and breaks through to the downside, then we’ll reevaluate again.
$BTC #SpaceX首个锁定期8月6日到期 #Circle #美联储何时降息？ #Coldcard盗窃超1亿美元
1. BTC is still grinding around 63,500—64,000.
Overall, it’s relatively resilient.
On Monday, spot BTC ETFs saw a renewed net inflow of about $170 million—mainly driven by BlackRock’s IBIT buying.
Trading volume isn’t large; the market feels more like it’s waiting and watching rather than panicking and fleeing.
As long as it doesn’t break down with volume through 62,500—63,000, I won’t treat this move as a trend-collapse for now.
2. SpaceX will release its first earnings report tonight.
After the U.S. stock market closes today, it will announce Q2.
More importantly is August 6, when about 911.5 million shares enter their first major unlock window.
So even if tonight’s earnings look great, we still have to see whether the market can absorb the next batch of shares the day after tomorrow.
3. Circle will announce Q2 tomorrow.
Just before the earnings release, Morgan Stanley sharply cut its target price.
Whether the stablecoin story can still support a high valuation is crucial this time—this earnings report will be key.
4. Macro pressure hasn’t gone away.
U.S. Treasury yields are still elevated,
and the risk from carry trades after the coordinated U.S.-Japan intervention in the yen is still being worked through.
There’s also employment data this week.
As for the Coldcard vulnerability, there are currently no new large-scale breakout points, but the risk hasn’t completely passed.
Right now, it’s neither broad panic nor a comfortable one-way bull market.
It’s more like—
BTC is holding,
macro is weighing down,
capital is waiting,
and certain individual events are moving on their own tracks.
In the short term, I’ll keep watching 63K.
Hold it, keep consolidating.
If it really gets volume and breaks through to the downside, then we’ll reevaluate again.
$BTC #SpaceX首个锁定期8月6日到期 #Circle #美联储何时降息？ #Coldcard盗窃超1亿美元