August 3, investment firm Bernstein said that the outlook for the U.S. “Digital Assets Market Clarity Act” (CLARITY Act) is worsening, and if the Senate fails to advance the bill before the recess, it could trigger a short-term negative reaction in the market, further pressuring the valuation of Bitcoin and overall crypto assets.
Bernstein noted that a bill failure could lead to an “instinctive sell-off” in the market, but in the long run it may also prompt the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to accelerate regulatory efforts, including clarifying token classification rules, developing a regulatory framework for decentralized finance (DeFi), and moving forward with token issuance exemption mechanisms.
Bernstein expects the crypto market to bottom out from late Q3 to early Q4 and gradually regain momentum ahead of the U.S. midterm elections.
At present, market expectations that the CLARITY Act will be signed into law by the end of 2026 continue to decline. Data from prediction platform Polymarket shows the probability of passage this year has fallen to 31%, down 7 percentage points from a week ago, down 9 percentage points over the past month, with related bet amounts totaling about $3.7 million.
The CLARITY Act is intended to establish the first U.S. regulatory framework for digital asset markets, but it has faced resistance from the banking industry due to stablecoin yield provisions. Previously, Galaxy Digital reduced its probability of the bill being implemented in 2026 to 50% and warned that the time for the Senate to advance it is running out.
August 3, former Federal Reserve economist: Economic data may be distorted, and the Fed could misjudge the situation
Former Federal Reserve economist and Sahm Rule originator Claudia Sahm said that if the Fed ignores基层 economic signals for a long time, it may misjudge economic conditions due to distorted macroeconomic data.
Sahm noted that the “resilience” shown in current U.S. consumer data is not driven by growth in household wealth. Instead, it comes more from households taking on more debt and lowering their consumption standards to maintain their way of life. The Fed’s latest Beige Book shows that in nearly half of the regions, Federal Reserve observers have found that consumers are paying for day-to-day expenses through credit cards, small loans, and other forms of credit.
At the same time,基层 consumption pressure continues to build. In some areas, consumers have reduced spending on higher-priced food due to high prices, and food-assistance demand faced by charities has even exceeded levels seen during the financial crisis and the pandemic.
In the job market, Sahm said there is a gap between the official low unemployment-rate data and workers’ actual experiences. Fed interviews show that some workers describe the current employment environment as “survival” rather than “stability.” Due to concerns about economic uncertainty, workers’ willingness to change jobs has declined, and even when faced with wage stagnation, they choose to stay.
Sahm warned that although基层 economic pressures are intensifying, some businesses have started proactively raising wages as employees’ cost of living increases, which could potentially push inflation risks higher again. She believes that as a data-driven institution, the Fed should not rely only on macro statistical data, but needs to pay attention to ordinary households’ real feelings about prices and employment; otherwise, it may miss important signals of economic changes.
I almost skipped past this, honestly. I was scrolling through Babylon's dispute data looking at the final six circuits, the enforcement set, and moved on. Then I went back and counted every revealed instance instead. 307 of them. That single change in what you're counting flips the whole picture.
The easy read is: more archived evidence, more security. Keep everything, you're covered. That's the instinct most people land on and stop there.
But sit with where that storage actually goes. 307 revealed instances against 6 retained ones is a 51.17x multiplier. Per claimer-challenger pair, that's 301 extra objects sitting around. Run three-copy replication on top and you're carrying 903 backup objects for a single relationship. That's not a security feature. That's a standing liability someone has to manage.
Here's what most people conflate: they treat "more data retained" as automatically "more dispute resilience." It isn't. A one-second integrity check across all 307 objects becomes 5 minutes 7 seconds per pair. The retained six take six seconds. Multiply that across many relationships and you've turned a conservative archive policy into a recurring operational tax, not a safety net.
I keep coming back to a stock buyback analogy. A company holding excess cash "just in case" looks prudent until you ask what that cash isn't doing. Idle capital has a cost even when nothing goes wrong. Babylon's revealed instances are the same trade-off in data form. Storing 50x more than what enforcement actually needs isn't free insurance. It's capital, just denominated in verification time instead of dollars.
My first instinct was that more retained evidence is strictly good for trust. I don't think that holds up once you price in the check burden. The real question is whether 307 instances buy meaningfully more dispute resilience than the 6 that actually reach enforcement, or whether most of that data just sits there, unused, until someone has to justify keeping it.
On August 4, in July’s crypto asset ETF fund flow, the Ethereum (ETH) ETF became the biggest winner, with a net inflow of $365 million in a single month. Data shows that the Bitcoin ETF saw a net inflow of $172.43 million in July; the Solana (SOL) ETF had a net inflow of $14.62 million; the XRP ETF had a net inflow of $27.29 million; the Chainlink (LINK) ETF had a net inflow of $4.54 million; the HBAR ETF had a net inflow of $3.0 million; and the LTC ETF had a net inflow of $30.4 thousand. Meanwhile, HYPE-related ETFs were the only products to record net outflows, with a net outflow of $15.16 million in July. Overall, in July institutional fund allocation was clearly tilted toward the Ethereum ecosystem; the scale of funds attracted by ETH ETFs exceeded that of BTC ETFs, indicating that market demand for Ethereum-related assets continues to heat up.
The greatest regret in life is not having seriously chosen. Out of fear of making mistakes, one stops in place; it looks safe, but it’s actually being passively swept along with the current. Don’t give up one right choice because you fear the consequences. Predict makes one correct choice. Believe that he will surely succeed!!!
August begins anew, bidding farewell to the old and welcoming the new. Let go of every unfortunate thing from the past, and may good luck follow you in the days ahead—everything goes smoothly, and wealth rolls in endlessly 🧧
Interactive giveaway arrangement: Leave a comment to claim a red envelope 🧧—catch the August good fortune that belongs to you! 🔥🔥 #cz #bnb
🌹Hope is a light that shines, Kindness is a heart that beats, Together, they illuminate the path, And guide us towards a bright future. Iwish you the best.🌹
The best mentor in life is yourself—your own drive to keep moving upward. Life won’t let down someone who keeps working hard. Wishing that we’ll all meet a better version of ourselves along the paths we坚持. predict is the prediction platform that Binance will continue to promote 🔥🔥 #PREDİCT
The greatest regret in life is not having seriously chosen. Out of fear of making mistakes, one stops in place; it looks safe, but it’s actually being passively swept along with the current. Don’t give up one right choice because you fear the consequences. Predict makes one correct choice. Believe that he will surely succeed!!!
$Hawk 🎁Hello, August! 🧧🧧🧧🧧🧧🧧 Say goodbye to the summer’s restlessness and welcome the autumn harvest. #Hawk Keep building for the long term; work diligently in silence ✊ and gradually build up strength—thick accumulation will surely bring success 🔥. 👉 Hawk 🦅 will help you enjoy surging wealth 💰🎉🎉🎉 #苹果芯片短缺拖累销售预期 #沙特油轮绕行非洲避红海
The market continues to pull back and forth, with clear differentiation across sectors. Short-term trading becomes more difficult. Don’t blindly bottom-fish; wait for clearer signals before taking action. When gains and losses share the same source, impulsive openings can easily lead to losses. Stick to your trading plan and view price moves rationally. In a choppy market, light-position swing trades are more suitable—wait patiently for a directional breakout.
💥Most dilemmas can’t be turned around in the short term. 💥The biggest trap for ordinary people: being eager to get out of a low point, wanting results immediately. Once they don’t see hope in the short run, they become restless, impatient, and even take reckless risks. 💥The truly clear-headed understand how to respect cycles. 💥Markets have ups and downs; life has rises and falls. Some things can only be waited for at the right moment, while some opportunities need time to ripen. If you can stay grounded and endure the long period of silence, you’ll be able to wait for the turning point.
Korean stock market plunges nearly 30%. The government even deploys drones to patrol the Han River Bridge and installs SOS phones—this isn’t just a market correction; it’s clearly a social safety warning.
What’s truly frightening isn’t the candlestick chart—it’s the details, like a coworker suddenly going silent and disappearing alone to go eat. When losses spread from your account into your daily life, the likelihood of extreme events increases.
As global liquidity ebbs, overvalued assets are being repriced. What South Korea is guarding against is not only financial risk, but also the collapse of human nature under pressure.
The market always offers opportunities, but the prerequisite is: you have to be there.
August 3, former Federal Reserve economist: Economic data may be distorted, and the Fed could misjudge the situation
Former Federal Reserve economist and Sahm Rule originator Claudia Sahm said that if the Fed ignores基层 economic signals for a long time, it may misjudge economic conditions due to distorted macroeconomic data.
Sahm noted that the “resilience” shown in current U.S. consumer data is not driven by growth in household wealth. Instead, it comes more from households taking on more debt and lowering their consumption standards to maintain their way of life. The Fed’s latest Beige Book shows that in nearly half of the regions, Federal Reserve observers have found that consumers are paying for day-to-day expenses through credit cards, small loans, and other forms of credit.
At the same time,基层 consumption pressure continues to build. In some areas, consumers have reduced spending on higher-priced food due to high prices, and food-assistance demand faced by charities has even exceeded levels seen during the financial crisis and the pandemic.
In the job market, Sahm said there is a gap between the official low unemployment-rate data and workers’ actual experiences. Fed interviews show that some workers describe the current employment environment as “survival” rather than “stability.” Due to concerns about economic uncertainty, workers’ willingness to change jobs has declined, and even when faced with wage stagnation, they choose to stay.
Sahm warned that although基层 economic pressures are intensifying, some businesses have started proactively raising wages as employees’ cost of living increases, which could potentially push inflation risks higher again. She believes that as a data-driven institution, the Fed should not rely only on macro statistical data, but needs to pay attention to ordinary households’ real feelings about prices and employment; otherwise, it may miss important signals of economic changes.
August 3, investment firm Bernstein said that the outlook for the U.S. “Digital Assets Market Clarity Act” (CLARITY Act) is worsening, and if the Senate fails to advance the bill before the recess, it could trigger a short-term negative reaction in the market, further pressuring the valuation of Bitcoin and overall crypto assets.
Bernstein noted that a bill failure could lead to an “instinctive sell-off” in the market, but in the long run it may also prompt the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to accelerate regulatory efforts, including clarifying token classification rules, developing a regulatory framework for decentralized finance (DeFi), and moving forward with token issuance exemption mechanisms.
Bernstein expects the crypto market to bottom out from late Q3 to early Q4 and gradually regain momentum ahead of the U.S. midterm elections.
At present, market expectations that the CLARITY Act will be signed into law by the end of 2026 continue to decline. Data from prediction platform Polymarket shows the probability of passage this year has fallen to 31%, down 7 percentage points from a week ago, down 9 percentage points over the past month, with related bet amounts totaling about $3.7 million.
The CLARITY Act is intended to establish the first U.S. regulatory framework for digital asset markets, but it has faced resistance from the banking industry due to stablecoin yield provisions. Previously, Galaxy Digital reduced its probability of the bill being implemented in 2026 to 50% and warned that the time for the Senate to advance it is running out.
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