This August vacuum period is really grinding; there hasn’t been much movement on the news front, and BTC just keeps sweeping back and forth within a wide range. Last night I thought that after it dropped to around halfway of the weekly uptrend swing, it would pull up directly—turns out when it touched around 64, it just capped off and went sideways.
Today BTC’s game plan is simple: if there’s no major news, don’t expect big volatility—just stay disciplined and trade the range. The aggressive approach is to take a little at the white line area with a light position first; the more conservative approach is to wait for a pullback to support before acting. Last night’s previous high is only for reference—if you really want to bet on a short-term short, you need to keep a close eye on it, because if price can’t break above this level and stay there, the 4-hour timeframe can flip into an upward reversal. So shorting at the resistance zone above is safer than chasing a short.
🎯 BTC: 63,250 is the watershed between long and short.
Today anchor at 63,250. If the 4-hour candle doesn’t break, after a pullback on a smaller timeframe it should keep pushing up. First watch 64,000. Only a real breakout would mark a reversal—then look for short opportunities near 65,500–67,000.
On the other hand, if the 4-hour chart breaks down below 63,250, that’s a signal of a deeper retest. Then add longs in batches around these levels: 62,300 → 61,500 → 60,000.
Simply put: not breaking 63,250 = buy the dip; breaking 63,250 = flip to short, or wait for an equally deep pullback to go long.
🎯 Ethereum (ETH): once 1,860 is lost, it opens up the downside.
ETH to watch 1,860 today. If the 4-hour holds, after the pullback it should continue higher. Place shorts in batches near 1,885 → 1,910 → 1,935.
If 1,860 breaks, the deeper retest starts. Then add longs below at 1,830 → 1,805 → 1,780.
💡 ETH has clearly been weaker than BTC over the past two days. The ETH/BTC rate has kept falling. If going long, prioritize BTC; for ETH, only do buy-the-dip rebounds—it’s more comfortable to short-term long on pullbacks.
🎯 BNB: a strong coin, but 596 is the key hurdle.
BNB is still showing strong momentum. The 596 level has been tapped several times but hasn’t managed to hold above it. Only after a strong daily close/breakout above 596 will the upside open up; then look to short around 607 → 618 → 630.
If there’s a pullback opportunity during the day, add longs near 582 → 573 → 563.
BNB’s characteristic is: it falls slowly and rises quickly. The long trade’s risk/reward has been consistently good—don’t hesitate when it pulls back to support.
🎯 SOL: 73.2 is the key inflection point.
SOL anchors at 73.2 today. If the 4-hour doesn’t break, after a small-timeframe pullback it should continue upward. Place short orders near 75 → 77 → 79.
If 73.2 breaks, expect a deep retest. Add longs in batches below at 72 → 70 → 68.
SOL has high volatility and the pin-touches are brutal too. Cut your position size by half compared to BTC; otherwise, one pin can sweep you out.
⚠️ Position management (this matters more than the price levels)
- Light position definition is 0.5% position size. If you stagger limit orders at resistance/support levels, keep each level to no more than 1%.
- Place orders based on the levels; with 100x leverage, don’t let total position size exceed 2%. Keep room for adding/averaging in.
- If your position size is heavy, use the prior 1-hour or 2-hour swing high/low to place stop-loss, or set a fixed stop-loss.
- August is a vacuum period. Volatility may tighten, but there won’t be fewer pin-touches. Stop-loss matters ten times more than predictions.
📌 The levels above are for reference only. In August the news flow is sparse; technically it’s just broad-range consolidation. Don’t get greedy, don’t hold on stubbornly, and don’t go all-in. If there’s any sudden news (US-Iran negotiations, abnormal ETF flow, CLARITY bill progress), re-decide direction immediately based on the news—technical levels become invalid.
Go long or short—manage your positions well. Set take-profit and stop-loss properly, and take profits when you can.