After a whole day of rest, my body just recovered, and when I opened the market, the weekend's situation was simply 'chaotic and disorderly.'
This is a very typical **Garbage Time** market: Bitcoin is flat, and funds are frantically searching for outlets in every corner.
I stared at the three hotspots on the screen:$雪球 ,$AXS and $LTC
These three tokens happen to represent three completely different **'casino games'** in the crypto world.
As a veteran who has been in the primary market for many years, I want to break down the funding logic behind this, so you won't get lost in the FOMO of the weekend.
1️⃣ First game: Pass the flower (Snowball)
The whole screen is shouting that Snowball is the new golden dog.
What is the essence of MEME? It is monetizing attention.
Many people ask me if I can charge?
My answer is: This is a purely PVP (Player vs Player) event.
The logic here is not fundamentals, but **'running fast'**.
Risk: On-chain data shows that the holdings of front-row whales are extremely concentrated. They are holding still to wait for the emotional peak.
Strategy: If you treat this as a lottery and use this week's meal money to gamble for hundreds of times, that's fine. But if you treat it as an investment and want to all-in to change your fate, you will likely become that 'melted snowman'.
2️⃣ Second game: Old king resurrects ($AXS)
After two years of silence, Axie Infinity suddenly rises, with some shouting 'GameFi Summer is back'.
Don't be naive.
Check the real daily active data on DappRadar. The current rise is more about funds rotating to find **'oversold targets'** for recovery.
In strategic consulting, this is called Dead Cat Bounce.
When a sector only has prices rising while user numbers do not increase, this is a typical inducement **.
Strategy: If you are trapped at the peak, this is heaven giving you an escape route, not a point to increase your position.
3️⃣ Third game: Old dog's safe haven ($LTC)
Amidst the screen's tumult, I instead noticed the most boring Litecoin ($LTC).
Why? Because comparison creates beauty.
Yesterday ARB unlocked, tomorrow ASTR structural selling pressure. Everyone is scared of VC coins.
At this time, funds will flow back to 'old antiques' like LTC, which are fully circulated, POW mechanisms, and have no VC unlocks to seek safety.
Munger said: 'Think backwards, always think backwards.'
When everyone is gambling for their lives in crowded Meme coins, picking up some cheap LTC chips in this overlooked corner might be the choice with the highest risk-reward ratio.
Weekend summary from Munger on-chain:
The market is always full of temptations:
Snowball is strong liquor, drink it and get a hangover;
AXS is expired canned food, looks edible but gives you diarrhea;
LTC is plain water, bland but life-saving.
This weekend, I choose to drink plain water. What about you?