July’s market can be summed up in one sentence:

Find support in a decline, confirm resistance in a rally, and wait for direction during a range-bound market.

From the early-July low to the spike on July 21 that nearly reached 69,000, Bitcoin completed a full cycle of “decline—rebound—then another drop.” At present, a relatively clear M-top structure has formed on the daily chart level, and the market is now looking for the direction of the next phase.

July Market Recap: Trend switching matters more than predictions

Looking back on the entire July: Bitcoin’s low touched around 62,000, then rebounded to the 69,000 area, and once again entered a correction.

Throughout the process, we positioned around a few key levels:

Set long orders at lower levels around 62,800;

Around 61,600, wait again for an opportunity;

Set shorts in advance in the 64,000—65,000 area.

The market action also validates a core logic:

The market will never move only in one direction; what truly matters is identifying trend reversals.

Starting July 28, we used the trend structure to anticipate that the market would enter a downward leg. After that, the price continuously fell from around 65,000, reaching a low near 62,250, basically matching expectations.

From the rise, to the fall, then to the second rebound and pullback, the main swings throughout July all moved around the trend line.

An M-top is formed—where is the key support below?

If we project based on the M-top pattern, the theoretical correction target will focus on the 60,000 integer level.

More precisely, around 59,700 is an important observation zone.

However, yesterday’s market showed a key change:

The price completed a bottoming process around 62,000 and did not continue to break down.

Even if there is a quick spike, it is quickly pulled back, indicating clear buying support around 62,000.

Then here comes the question:

Has 62,000 already become the bottom of this round of correction?

At the moment, the answer is being gradually verified.

As long as the later price holds the 61,800—62,000 area, this round of selling may be close to the end, and the market may have a chance to start a new rebound cycle.

August trading strategy: focus on the rebound, not blindly shorting.

In the short term:

64,000—64,500 is the first resistance area right now.

Yesterday’s high touched around 64,000, indicating that the bulls are trying to break through.

If the price revisits again and fails to break 62,000, then 64,000, 65,000 and even higher levels may be retested.

Aggressive traders can consider short-term short opportunities around 63,300, but the room is limited; it’s more about quick entry and quick exit.

Real opportunities still wait for confirmation at low levels.

If the 61,800 support holds, then the rebound targets for this round to watch are:

Breakout above 65,000;

the 67,000 area;

even around 72,000.

Even if a fake breakout occurs later, considering the market has already been ranging for long enough since the move after breaking above 80,000, the rebound still has participation value.

ETH and gold: watch support rebounds in sync

As for Ethereum:

Focus on support around 1,825.

If the 1,837—1,825 area stabilizes, you can look for rebound opportunities. The upside target is around 1,875.

As for gold:

The current price action also shows a repeating cycle structure: “rise—correction—rebound—pullback.”

Short-term resistance forms around 4,058.

For the short term, you can watch for bearish opportunities around 4,058, with downside toward the 4,030 area.

If it continues to pull back toward 4,020 or even around 4,000, then wait for a new long opportunity.

Long-term perspective: a one-year adjustment or nearing the end

From October 2025 to today, Bitcoin has gone through nearly a one-year adjustment cycle.

Multiple times during the period:

range-bound — downwards;

Ranging again — adjusting again.

And right now, the market is entering a critical phase.

If the historical pattern continues to run, then a long-term basing period may be forming.

In the next one to two months, the market may face a real choice of direction.

In my opinion:

After September and October, the probability of Bitcoin returning to the “6 handle” area is decreasing again.

Of course, the market will never run according to the script.

but the trend has already begun to change.

In August, focus on whether support around 62,000 is valid, and whether the market can regain and hold above 65,000.

The market will not reward guessing; it only rewards understanding the trend.

I’m Lao Jin. I focus on trends and follow the market.

#Bitcoin #BTC #Ethereum #Gold #CryptoMarket #MarketAnalysis