220 drops to 107—would you dare to bottom-fish SpaceX stock?
First, the surface picture: the “new stock halo” is already shattered.
On June 12, its $135 IPO—an all-time largest offering—had people queueing by the tens of thousands to buy. After it surged to $225, it kept falling to around $109 now—down more than half.
In just 24 hours, it dropped another 2–3%, shrinking its market cap from over $2 trillion at the peak to $1.4 trillion.
You might think: “It’s down 50%—isn’t this a great time to buy the dip?”
First thing: tomorrow’s earnings report—this could look ugly.
On August 4 after the close, SPCX will release its first quarterly report since listing. Market expectations are revenue of about $6.88 billion, but an EPS loss of $0.23.
What does $0.23 mean? For a company valued at $1.4 trillion, it’s still losing money.
Starship burning cash, AI integration costs, xAI losses—these black holes are swallowing profits. Starlink is growing, sure, but whether it can fill the holes in other businesses will be revealed tomorrow.
Second thing: the $10 billion (a “hundred billion”) lock-up expiry two days later—that’s the real executioner.
On August 6, the first batch of IPO lock-ups expires—about 20% of restricted shares can be sold.
At IPO, internal employees and early investors were locked and couldn’t sell.
Two days later, they can sell.
These people have extremely low costs—just a few dollars or even less.
Would you really hold your $2-cost shares steady at $107? Don’t kid yourself.
And this isn’t the scariest part—the lock-up expiry is only the first wave; after that, a steady stream of supply will keep flooding into the market.
Third thing: the “bottom” you think you see may only be halfway down the mountain.
Technically, SPCX fell from 225 to 107—down 50%+. The RSI is indeed oversold. But oversold doesn’t mean it has reached bottom—especially when both fundamentals and supply are putting pressure on it.
On the daily chart, every rebound gets smashed down.
This is what’s called a “weak rebound and continued bottoming process.”
Key levels
Resistance above: 113–120 → 135 (IPO price)
Support below: 105–107 → 100–103 → 90
For the aggressive:
Try a small long position on 105–108, cut loss at 103, target 113–120. But if earnings are a disaster, the next day could open lower and break through 100 immediately.
For the conservative:
Wait for the earnings report to land, wait for the selloff from the lock-up expiry to finish, then wait for direction to become clear. SPCX has extremely high volatility—10–20% swings within a single day around earnings are very normal.
For those looking to short:
If earnings miss expectations, or after the report it rebounds and stalls around 115–120, short lightly—target 105–107, even below 100. Set a stop-loss above 122.
First, the surface picture: the “new stock halo” is already shattered.
On June 12, its $135 IPO—an all-time largest offering—had people queueing by the tens of thousands to buy. After it surged to $225, it kept falling to around $109 now—down more than half.
In just 24 hours, it dropped another 2–3%, shrinking its market cap from over $2 trillion at the peak to $1.4 trillion.
You might think: “It’s down 50%—isn’t this a great time to buy the dip?”
First thing: tomorrow’s earnings report—this could look ugly.
On August 4 after the close, SPCX will release its first quarterly report since listing. Market expectations are revenue of about $6.88 billion, but an EPS loss of $0.23.
What does $0.23 mean? For a company valued at $1.4 trillion, it’s still losing money.
Starship burning cash, AI integration costs, xAI losses—these black holes are swallowing profits. Starlink is growing, sure, but whether it can fill the holes in other businesses will be revealed tomorrow.
Second thing: the $10 billion (a “hundred billion”) lock-up expiry two days later—that’s the real executioner.
On August 6, the first batch of IPO lock-ups expires—about 20% of restricted shares can be sold.
At IPO, internal employees and early investors were locked and couldn’t sell.
Two days later, they can sell.
These people have extremely low costs—just a few dollars or even less.
Would you really hold your $2-cost shares steady at $107? Don’t kid yourself.
And this isn’t the scariest part—the lock-up expiry is only the first wave; after that, a steady stream of supply will keep flooding into the market.
Third thing: the “bottom” you think you see may only be halfway down the mountain.
Technically, SPCX fell from 225 to 107—down 50%+. The RSI is indeed oversold. But oversold doesn’t mean it has reached bottom—especially when both fundamentals and supply are putting pressure on it.
On the daily chart, every rebound gets smashed down.
This is what’s called a “weak rebound and continued bottoming process.”
Key levels
Resistance above: 113–120 → 135 (IPO price)
Support below: 105–107 → 100–103 → 90
For the aggressive:
Try a small long position on 105–108, cut loss at 103, target 113–120. But if earnings are a disaster, the next day could open lower and break through 100 immediately.
For the conservative:
Wait for the earnings report to land, wait for the selloff from the lock-up expiry to finish, then wait for direction to become clear. SPCX has extremely high volatility—10–20% swings within a single day around earnings are very normal.
For those looking to short:
If earnings miss expectations, or after the report it rebounds and stalls around 115–120, short lightly—target 105–107, even below 100. Set a stop-loss above 122.