A few things you need to know before the market opens this week$ETH
1. U.S. stock technical setup: betting on a continued rebound
S&P positive Gamma has shifted up to the 7500 level (next at 7550 and 7600). The options market is positioning for a push through the 7500–7600 range. VIX has fallen below 20, indicating compressed volatility. SPY 749–750 is the key resistance (overnight 751). A breakout could open the way to the 760.40 new high; a break below 740–741 would likely send it down to 736 and even 727.
2. Geopolitical risk hasn’t gone away
Trump said the Iran strikes were canceled and an agreement was reached. Iran has denied it in full, saying it was psychological warfare. The U.S. has issued safety warnings to citizens in the Middle East, and uncertainty remains high.
3. U.S. Treasury yields surge, reviving rate-hike expectations
The 30-year yield jumped to 5.27% (the highest since 2007). The market now prices a 72% probability of a rate hike in September. Mortgage rates are approaching 7%–8%, pressuring real estate and consumption.
4. U.S.-Japan joint FX intervention for the first time in 15 years
The Bank of Japan sold $59.0 billion, while the New York Fed worked together to sell EUR/USD and buy yen, disrupting carry-trade activity and potentially increasing Treasury volatility.
5. Gold: clear inflows
GLD’s positive Gamma is recovering. Options show large Call buying (targeting 400–500). If it breaks the 370–375 resistance zone, it could move up toward 400. A weaker dollar and rising bond prices are supportive for gold.
6. This week’s macro data and earnings
Data: JOLTs, ISM services PMI, and Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls—these will validate rate-hike expectations.
Earnings: Monday PLTR; Tuesday AMD (focus—sentiment is slightly negative, negative Gamma at 450/400; if results miss expectations, it could trigger downside), SpaceX, ANET, ALAB, KTOS; Wednesday storage-related names such as WDC; Thursday DDOG before the open, and AAOI after the close. #美日2011年来首次联合干预日元
1. U.S. stock technical setup: betting on a continued rebound
S&P positive Gamma has shifted up to the 7500 level (next at 7550 and 7600). The options market is positioning for a push through the 7500–7600 range. VIX has fallen below 20, indicating compressed volatility. SPY 749–750 is the key resistance (overnight 751). A breakout could open the way to the 760.40 new high; a break below 740–741 would likely send it down to 736 and even 727.
2. Geopolitical risk hasn’t gone away
Trump said the Iran strikes were canceled and an agreement was reached. Iran has denied it in full, saying it was psychological warfare. The U.S. has issued safety warnings to citizens in the Middle East, and uncertainty remains high.
3. U.S. Treasury yields surge, reviving rate-hike expectations
The 30-year yield jumped to 5.27% (the highest since 2007). The market now prices a 72% probability of a rate hike in September. Mortgage rates are approaching 7%–8%, pressuring real estate and consumption.
4. U.S.-Japan joint FX intervention for the first time in 15 years
The Bank of Japan sold $59.0 billion, while the New York Fed worked together to sell EUR/USD and buy yen, disrupting carry-trade activity and potentially increasing Treasury volatility.
5. Gold: clear inflows
GLD’s positive Gamma is recovering. Options show large Call buying (targeting 400–500). If it breaks the 370–375 resistance zone, it could move up toward 400. A weaker dollar and rising bond prices are supportive for gold.
6. This week’s macro data and earnings
Data: JOLTs, ISM services PMI, and Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls—these will validate rate-hike expectations.
Earnings: Monday PLTR; Tuesday AMD (focus—sentiment is slightly negative, negative Gamma at 450/400; if results miss expectations, it could trigger downside), SpaceX, ANET, ALAB, KTOS; Wednesday storage-related names such as WDC; Thursday DDOG before the open, and AAOI after the close. #美日2011年来首次联合干预日元