1️⃣ My competition volume and wear
My competition volume (actual spend, 1x): 232,926.45
Total wear: 131.581
The loss caused by holding positions and making short trades: 79.503-17.356=62.147
Contracts have realized profits: 101.80
I can't help but make short trades and hold positions; this has always been my stubborn problem, and it flares up from time to time. I really hate myself 😞😞. During this competition, I had two episodes, one with a loss of 79.503 and another with a small gain of 17.356.
After excluding the trading volume and wear caused by making short trades and holding positions, the wear rate from my 【reverse order + floating green method】 is:
(131.581-62.147)/(232,926.45-1,479.8102982–1,493.7865225)=0.0301949%
This result is somewhat unsatisfactory compared to the ideal wear of 0.02%, but considering the financial losses and psychological torment caused by holding positions 😩, a wear of 0.03% is already acceptable.
Additionally, let me talk about contracts and hedging. $H I hedged early in the morning, and later during the price fluctuations, made several adjustments. Since the hedging and regular contract orders are mixed together, it no longer matters whether it is hedged or not. Currently, I have secured a profit of 101.80, with some positions still open:
The complex journey of repeatedly tinkering with contracts is challenging. On one hand, I want to gradually raise the hedging price, and on the other hand, I want to recover losses from holding positions while accumulating points. I'm not sure whether my approach is good or bad, so I'll keep exploring.
Currently, the average holding price is 0.207, with unrealized gains, but the position size is greater than the competition reward. I have decided to continue holding until the competition rewards are distributed:
Overall, if I can qualify, this time will be profitable.
Updated on September 18: Prize collection, locking in profits
A prize sent at 11 AM, a total gain of 100.748
2️⃣ Qualification Prediction
Today's final trading volume: 435407608.31 (the value is based on the Binance API, and there is a discrepancy with the 413 million in the candlestick chart)
Total trading volume during the event: 753347093.01
✅ Estimated threshold: 209,207.386
‼️ Margin threshold: 173,034.0666
😈 Foolproof: 294,529.319
Many people criticize me for giving three thresholds, saying it would be better not to predict at all. I have already explained the related controversies in my previous review post. These three values correspond to normal people, margin enthusiasts, and crazies.
Why did I total a spend of 232,926.45 instead of 209,207.386? Because this is a post-competition review, and I made my spend earlier in the afternoon based on the estimated trading volume for that time. The estimated trading volume was greater than 435407608.31.
3️⃣ Follow-up
Recently, I have been feeling a bit low, and the trading competition is becoming less interesting. I reviewed the alpha returns of the past 15 days, which were also not ideal, and I'm feeling a bit like giving up.
I previously released a pre-competition estimate and received a lot of criticism, so I initiated a seven-day voting period. Now the results are out:
Most people still hope I will continue to predict 🤨, so I will continue to compete with everyone for a while.
The promised two tutorial posts are still being written, but my condition is really not good, so please wait a bit longer.
4️⃣ Off-topic: Written for $BNB those of us who are trapped
Recently, I researched the lista project and found it quite appealing. I'm not just participating in Binance's activities; my own 9.65576 BNB also participated, all transferred to the Binance wallet, and all exchanged for slisBNB. I strongly recommend everyone to research and participate as well.
Additionally, you can refer to my article: There were some small tricks while playing with BNB and slisBNB, which lazy people really couldn't figure out, but it couldn't escape this seal's eyes