The influence of the Bitcoin four-year cycle is weakening, and policy forces are reshaping trading logic

The market is entering a new phase dominated by policy signals
The four-year cycle model, long viewed as the core narrative for Bitcoin, is weakening
Analysis indicates that the impact of politics and macro policies on prices is gradually surpassing on-chain factors like halving

Although U.S. stocks are expected to perform strongly in 2025, Bitcoin's performance is relatively lagging
Reflecting that the market is more driven by liquidity expectations and policy timing
Rather than overall risk appetite

Under traditional models, the beginning of 2026 should enter the final phase of the cycle
But current trends show that investors are delaying this phase
Policy factors are dominant

Current pre-election fiscal stimulus, along with blurred boundaries between fiscal and monetary policy
Are creating an environment similar to 'financial repression'
Against a backdrop of high government spending and pressured real interest rates

The attraction of traditional bonds and credit is declining, while the allocation value of digital assets is rising