📌 Section 1. Latest intraday developments on Monday, August 3: After the FOMC, the “sell the news” price action is digesting the move as nonfarm payrolls week begins
Price action: Last week, the U.S. Fed’s July FOMC meeting released strongly dovish signals— the dot plot raised expectations for rate cuts this year to two times, and at the press conference, the Watson reporter clearly hinted that “a September rate cut is already under discussion.” After the decision was announced, BTC briefly surged to $89,400, setting a new high since January 2026. However, the “buy the expectation, sell the fact” effect subsequently kicked in, compounded by month-end profit-taking. BTC then retreated from its peak. In today’s Asian session, BTC is consolidating in a range of $86,800–$87,500, with a slight 24-hour decline of about 0.5%. After three straight weeks of gains, the market is entering normal digestion. Ethereum also saw a mild pullback to around $2,360. The Fear & Greed Index stays at 72 (Greed), and bullish sentiment remains dominant.
Key drivers of the trade:
Direction Event Market reaction
🟢 Major positive surprise: the July FOMC dot plot turned unexpectedly dovish (two rate cuts within the year). Waller said “a September cut is in view.” The door to rate cuts is officially open. BTC briefly surged to $89,400; the US dollar index fell below 98; the 10-year Treasury yield dropped to 3.6%
🟡 Neutral: the “buy the expectations, sell the fact” effect plus weekend profit-taking. BTC has pulled back about $3,000 from its high—just normal technical consolidation.
🟢 Positives US Q2 GDP advance estimate +2.8%, well above expectations; June core PCE falls to 2.7% (the lowest since June 2024), confirming the perfect “soft landing + inflation under control” data. The macro foundation for risk assets is rock-solid
🟢 Positives: BTC spot ETF sees net inflows for the eighth consecutive week (July 27–31 about $470 million). BlackRock’s IBIT continues to attract funds. The institutional buying trend shows no sign of slowing, providing strong support for a pullback
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📅 II. Macroeconomic calendar for the coming week (August 3–9)
Date Key event Potential impact
August 3 (Monday) US July ISM Manufacturing PMI (22:00); Fed official Goolsbee remarks If the manufacturing PMI stays below the 50 boom-bust line, it signals economic slowdown and reinforces the rate-cut expectations
August 4 (Tuesday) US June JOLTS job openings (22:00) If job openings continue to fall → labor-market loosening, supportive of rate-cut expectations
August 5 (Wednesday) 🔴 US July ADP employment data “mini nonfarm” (20:15); Fed Vice Chair Jefferson remarks Provide forward guidance for nonfarm: if it comes in far below expectations → higher probability of weaker Friday nonfarm; rate-cut expectations heat up
August 6 (Thursday) US initial jobless claims (20:30); Fed Chair Waller speaks (time TBD) If initial claims remain elevated → a signal that the labor market is cooling. If Waller, who speaks for the first time after the FOMC, consolidates a dovish tone, it will stabilize market confidence
August 7 (Friday) 💣 US July nonfarm payrolls (20:30) — expected +145,000 new jobs, unemployment rate 4.3%, and 0.3% m/m in average hourly earnings ⚠️ The heaviest macro event this week: the last nonfarm report before the September FOMC. If employment data is weak, it will lock in a September cut completely and the market may see another round of accelerated upside. If data is strong, rate-cut expectations may loosen at the margin, triggering a short-term pullback.
August 8–9 Weekend: macro news is quiet. The market digests the nonfarm data to set the tone for the final trading window before the September FOMC
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📊 III. Summary of positive factors
🟢 1. The dovish shift of the FOMC is established; policy tailwinds will be the core driver in the medium to long term
At last week’s FOMC, Waller completed a major dovish pivot within his term: the dot plot implies two cuts this year; the policy statement acknowledges that the inflation and employment targets are moving toward balance; and in the press conference he clearly paved the way for a September rate cut. The Fed has effectively entered the period just before the rate-cut cycle. Fundamentally, this lowers the opportunity cost of holding non-interest-bearing assets like Bitcoin, and will drive a large amount of off-exchange capital to allocate.
🟢 2. The “soft landing” macro environment is solid; the feast for risk assets is not over
Q2 GDP is strong, dispelling recession fears. June core PCE falling to 2.7% confirms ongoing disinflation, and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index rebounds. This perfect combination of “high growth and low inflation” provides the best macro soil for risk assets like stocks and crypto.
🟢 3. Institutional capital inflows are unprecedented; ETFs become the “anchor”
Spot ETF net inflows continue for eight consecutive weeks; the inflow pace of funds into products like BlackRock and Fidelity is not slowing. ETFs have become BTC’s “stabilizer” and “booster,” meaning any pullback will be very limited. Any large selloff will be treated by institutions as an opportunity to add.
🟢 4. The regulatory framework is officially established; the industry enters a new development stage
The CLARITY Act has been signed into law and is now effective, permanently confirming the compliant status of BTC/ETH as “digital commodities.” This historic legislation will spur the next wave of crypto innovation in the United States and attract trillions of dollars of traditional capital
🟢 5. The technical bull-market structure is complete, with $85,000 already established as a strong mid-term support
On both the daily and weekly moving-average systems, the MA alignment is bullish. The $85,000–$86,000 area has turned from prior highs into solid mid-term support. The uptrend channel remains intact. If nonfarm this week cooperates, the path toward $95,000–$100,000 within the month is clear.
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⚠️ IV. Summary of bearish factors / risks
🔴 1. 💣 July nonfarm data (this Friday) — the ultimate test for rate-cut bets
The market is already pricing in a September rate cut at full speed (probability >90%). If nonfarm data is unexpectedly strong (>2 million, monthly wage growth rate >0.3%), it may temporarily hit rate-cut expectations, leading to a dollar rebound and a technical pullback in BTC. Conversely, if nonfarm is weak, the rate cut is essentially locked in and the market will accelerate higher.
🔴 2. The risk of a “sell the fact” pullback still exists
After the FOMC, the market shows profit-taking—indicating strong resistance exists in the $89,000–$90,000 area. If there is no new powerful catalyst at the start of this week, the market may keep trading by time rather than by distance, digesting the prior rally.
🔴 3. Seasonal liquidity decline
August is the traditional holiday season in Europe and the US, and market liquidity may decline compared with earlier periods. This could amplify price volatility, especially around data releases, increasing the odds of false breakouts or sudden crashes.
🔴 4. Near-term technical indicators are overbought and need to be digested
Daily RSI falls back from overbought and corrects; the deviation of short-term moving averages needs to be repaired. Price may build a new consolidation platform in the $85,000–$89,000 range to accumulate momentum for the next breakout.
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🗓 V. Key schedule snapshot (August 3–9)
Date Positive direction event Negative direction event
If August 3 ISM manufacturing PMI weakens → supportive of a rate cut. If Goolsbee’s remarks lean dovish and the PMI unexpectedly expands → marginally suppresses rate-cut expectations
August 4: JOLTS job openings decline → supportive of rate cuts. If job openings unexpectedly increase → marginally more hawkish
If the “mini nonfarm” on August 5 comes in below expectations + Jefferson is dovish → rate-cut expectations rise early. If ADP unexpectedly prints strong, it will suppress market sentiment ahead of Friday’s nonfarm.
August 6: If Waller consolidates a dovish stance, it will stabilize the market; if initial claims rise → positive. If Waller’s wording is cautious, or if initial claims unexpectedly fall
August 7 🔥 Weak nonfarm (<120k, monthly wage growth rate ≤0.3%) → a September rate cut is firmly locked in; BTC targets $90,000. 💣 Strong nonfarm (>2 million, monthly wage growth rate >0.3%) → rate-cut expectations fall; BTC may pull back to $85,000
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💡 VI. Summary and risk recommendations
Overall assessment: The Fed has officially started the rate-cut narrative; the macro environment is perfect; and the BTC bull-market structure is solid. This week’s nonfarm data is the last employment report before the September policy meeting, which will directly determine whether the market accelerates higher immediately or first experiences a healthy short-term pullback before pushing on.
Near-term range view: BTC is likely to trade bullishly in a range of $85,000–$92,000 this week, with $85,000–$86,000 acting as a strong support zone.
Scenario Trigger condition BTC target range
🟢 Accelerating upside: weak nonfarm (at <120k) + monthly wage growth rate ≤0.3% → a 100% probability of a September rate cut. $89,000→$92,000, with a monthly target of $95,000
🟡 Consolidation at high levels: nonfarm matches expectations (140k–180k) + Waller’s wording is neutral → the market stays put. $86,000–$89,000 forms a new platform as it waits for fresh catalysts
🔴 Short-term pullback: strong nonfarm (>2 million) + the monthly wage growth rate >0.3% → a marginal easing of rate-cut expectations. $84,000–$86,000: pull back to support, then start again
Three key “triggers” to watch this week:
1. August 7 nonfarm data: the highest-weight event that determines the near-term rhythm.
2. August 6 speech by Waller: first remarks after the FOMC, playing an “endgame-decision” role.
3. August 5 “mini nonfarm” ADP: a crucial forward-looking indicator for nonfarm; the data will cause the market to price in bets earlier.