I've been shorting for a while. Generally speaking, the popularity of a cryptocurrency is key. Especially when the market cap of smaller coins is low, they are prone to sudden spikes and can also experience extremely high funding rates for extended periods, just like the mysterious Xiao K always does.
It's not difficult to predict the periodic surges seen in River, CLO, and many other altcoins. The real challenge lies in whether you can hold on and how you handle the funding rate.
Initially, the price keeps rising for about a week, then starts to fall continuously. If the project releases some news or creates a buzz, another surge may follow. Usually, this cycle repeats no more than three times before coming to an end.
At this point, it's time to consider selling. It's quite interesting—those who can hold for a long time tend to make substantial profits, while day traders are at a disadvantage, as the price can drop significantly within about a week, sometimes even by 3 to 4 times.
From a medium-term perspective, holding for one to two weeks is feasible. You can take a position with 1% to 2% of your capital, gradually adding more up to three or four times. This strategy allows for stable returns even during a sudden sharp drop.