Bitcoin is trying to recover from recent losses after regaining the 95,000 USD level, which restored short-term optimism. The rise pushed the king of cryptocurrencies to a two-month high, but the rebound is still not fully confirmed.
In reality, Bitcoin is now facing a much greater challenge. The range between 98,000 and 110,000 USD is currently the most difficult resistance.
BTC holders have the opportunity to sell
Bitcoin's struggle becomes even more evident when analyzing the heatmap of long-term holders' acquisition cost distribution. Since November 2025, every rise has been halted within a dense cluster of supply around 93,000 to 110,000 USD. This area contains coins acquired during previous peaks. This is precisely what causes persistent selling pressure whenever the price returns to this range.
Any attempt to break out in this range triggered a new wave of distribution by long-term holders. Therefore, Bitcoin has failed to maintain structural rebounds despite multiple breakouts. Its price is once again reaching this oversupply zone, so the market is already awaiting a known test of endurance. Absorbing this distribution remains crucial for a sustainable trend reversal and confirming the strength of the breakout.
In a broader perspective, the realized gains and net losses of long-term holders paint a more moderate picture. Data shows that currently, long-term holders are realizing about 12,800 BTC weekly in net profit. This is significantly less than at the peaks of previous cycles when it exceeded 100,000 BTC weekly.
This slowdown shows that profit-taking is ongoing, but it is much less aggressive. Such a slowdown reduces the immediate risk of declines, yet does not completely negate the selling pressure. The market direction now depends on the strength of demand, especially from investors buying Bitcoin in the second quarter of 2025. If demand does not absorb the supply, the upward momentum will weaken.
The key long-term reference level remains the 'true market mean' around 81,000 USD. Maintaining prices above this threshold supports positive macro forecasts. A sustained loss of this level would drastically increase the risk of capitulation, reminiscent of the long declines from April 2022 to April 2023.
The price of Bitcoin needs strength to exceed 98,000 USD.
Bitcoin was trading at around 96,302 USD at the time of writing, the highest in two months. The breakout above 95,000 USD improved sentiment and brought BTC closer to resistance at 98,000 USD. Short-term momentum remains positive as long as the price stays above the recently reclaimed support levels.
However, surpassing 98,000 USD and maintaining above 95,000 USD will not be easy. The oversupply remains significant, so a return of the selling wave could quickly reverse the gains. If investors decide to take profits, Bitcoin could fall below 95,000 USD. In that case, a deeper corrective move to the region of 91,471 USD would be likely.
An upward scenario is possible if long-term holders further reduce selling. If the distribution fades, Bitcoin may break above the 98,000 USD level and attack 100,000 USD. Turning this psychological barrier into support would significantly improve sentiment. From there, BTC would have a real chance to rise to 110,000 USD, although new challenges related to resistance at six-figure valuations would arise.
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